Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

000 
WGUS71 KPBZ 131724
FFSPBZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

PAC051-131845-
FAYETTE PA-
122 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR
FAYETTE COUNTY...

AT 120 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FAYETTE COUNTY 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING 
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES 
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF FAYETTE COUNTY SINCE 1130 AM. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA BEFORE 245 PM.

LAT...LON 3984 7991 4011 7983 4011 7969 4010 7967
      4007 7966 4009 7961 4007 7960 4011 7955
      4010 7941 4006 7935 3982 7943

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR FF WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...
HAD TO GO FF WATCH, SINCE I SEE OF RAIN TRAIN DEVELOPING IN SW OHIO.
GFS AND NAM BOTH PUSH SFC FRONT TO MASON DIXON LN 12Z TDA, BUT A SFC
WAVE APPROACHES FROM CVG, AND FRONT APPEARS TO BULGE NWD A LITTLE,
SPCLY ON GFS MODEL. EVEN NAM MODEL PUSHES SFC DEWPT GRADIENT N A BIT
ALSO. AND BY 00Z, FRONT APPEARS TO BE SITTING FROM CVG TO MGW. WITH
ZONAL FLOW, I THINK WELL BE IN THE SOUP FOR DAYS MAYBE A LTL DROP IN
SFC DEWPT N. CONCERNED ABT NEED FOR NEW FFA, BUT LINE OF FLOODING RAIN
IN NW OHIO MIGHT NOT REACH MY AREA BEFORE IT DIMINISHES.

BOTH MODELS HAVE VORT MAX TRACKING FROM INDIANA EWD ALONG MASON DIXON
LINE. I AM MORE CONVINCED THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE S OF PIT, ALONG SRN
EDGE OF CWA. WL TRY TO MAKE POPS HIER IN S. HERE IS AVG POPS TDA FROM 3
MODELS: DUJ 18
        PIT 36
   ZZV 58    MGW 69.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FRONT TRYING TO RETURN FRI WILL PERMIT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN. WITH FRONT
CLOSE BY, AND WEAK IMPULSES IN FLOW, RETAINED LOW CHC SHOWERS, SPCLY
FAR SOUTH SAT AND SUN. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
MON AND TUE, THEN HIGH PRESSURE WED. &&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN PA TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY
WITH PASSAGE MID TO LATE MORNING PIT-ZZV. WINDS LIGHT TIL THEN WITH
STRATUS AND FOG BY 09Z-12Z MOST AREAS. FURTHEST SOUTH TERMINALS MOST
LIABLE TO HAVE CONVECTION LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN TERMINALS MID AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
THOUGH FOG MAY RETURN WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDS.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH MDZ001                     TIL 8 PM THU.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH OHZ057>059-068-069         TIL 8 PM THU.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH PAZ031-032                 TIL 8 PM THU.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WVZ003-004-012-021>023-041 TIL 8 PM THU.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
411 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>023-029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-140815-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-
VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-
ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-
FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
PRESTON-TUCKER-
411 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST CENTRAL
OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT, ROUGHLY FROM ZANESVILLE TO
WHEELING TO WAYNESBURG TO LATROBE TO OAKLAND MARYLAND. PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION UNLIKELY.