Tornado Warning 86, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING OVER
THE PAH FA...WITH TDS IN THE L70S IN THE WARM SECTOR SUPPLANTING
L-M60S TDS HANGING ON IN THE NRN/ERN PTNS FA. FREE CONVECTION
INITIATED IN THE SCOURED OUT ZONE TO OUR WEST...WHICH IS THE FOCUS
OF THE TORNADO WATCH OVER OUR WRN 1/3 OF THE FA...WHERE MDT RISK OF
SVR EXISTS. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PICKING UP ON THIS CONVECTION
AND RACING IT EWARD INTO SEMO BETWEEN 00-06Z...SPREADING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. PWS NR 1.5-2 NEARBY/UPSTREAM HELPING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND IN COMBO W/HPC QPF DAYS1-2 SUPPORT ONGOING FFA
THRU END OF EVENT.

AFTER TONIGHTS ROUND ALL EYES TURN TO COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES SAT PM/EVENING. BETTER DYNAMICS ENTER THE PICTURE BY THEN AS
THE UPPER LOW/JET DRIVES THE FRONT ON THRU...TEXT OF SWODY2
CONSISTENTLY HINTING AT UPGRADE TO MDT RISK. WL THEREFORE HIGHLIGHT
SVR THREAT BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN THREAT.

GFS HAVING REALLY BEEN MODEL OF CHOICE DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY...IT
TAKES THE FRONT EAST OF THE FA (A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM) BY 06Z
SUN. HOWEVER FOR COLLABORATIVE PURPOSES WE LINGERING A SMALL CHANCE
OF POST FRONTAL PCPN IN THE FAR SE EARLY SUN. AFTER THAT A DRIER AND
SEASONALLY COOLER AIR MASS WORKS AND HOLDS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

BY DAYS 6-7...NEXT SYSTEM YIELDS CHC PCPN FA-WIDE. FOR NOW HAVE
BOUGHT GFS SO STICKING W/IT AND THE COLLABORATIVE PICTURE IS OUR
APPROACH...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE SOME TIMING/INCONSISTENCY MAY EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO ADJUSTMENTS AND IS WHY WE KEEP CHC CAT PCPN DESPITE MOS
SUGGESTIONS FOR HIGHER.

MET AND MAV MOS IS CLOSE WHILE FWC MOS SEEMS OVERDONE ON BOTH THE
HIGH AND LOW ENDS AND UNDERDONE ON PCPN. OUR OVERALL GFS PREFERENCE
LEANS US TO ITS MAV/MEX BASED MOS WHEN LEANING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL COUNTIES.
MO...TOR WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL COUNTIES.
IL...TOR WATCH ALONG/WEST OF I-24 AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL COUNTIES.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL COUNTIES.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
129 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088-089-092-093-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
114-231000-
JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-UNION IL-JOHNSON-
ALEXANDER-PULASKI-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-
CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
129 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA...AND INTERACT WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THE SHEAR ALONG
THE FRONT AND ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH INSTABILITY. THE
INSTABILITY WILL IN LARGE PART BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THAT CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO THREATS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
ALSO IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ALSO LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY
BE POSSIBLE. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE NOW FOR THE TORNADO WATCH AND BE ALERT
FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE REQUESTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ILZ076>078-082-083-086-087-090-091-094-INZ081-082-085>088-
KYZ001>022-231000-
WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-HAMILTON-WHITE-SALINE-GALLATIN-POPE-
HARDIN-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-
FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-
MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-
HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
129 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
WABASH RIVER IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST OF THE LAKES OVER THE
JACKSON PURCHASE OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY...EAST OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS THE PENNYRILE.THESE
RISKS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. A MORE ISOLATED TORNADIC AND
LARGE HAIL THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE...AND AS A RESULT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ALSO LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY
BE POSSIBLE. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ANYTIME DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
09/22/2006                   MCCRACKEN          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING IN PADUCAH...LONE OAK...AND
            HENDRON AREA.

&&

PATS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PALMA                   36.96N 88.38W
09/22/2006                   MARSHALL           KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SIX INCHES OF WATER OVER ROAD 1712.

&&

PATS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1247 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E KEVIL               37.08N 88.87W
09/22/2006                   MCCRACKEN          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FLOWING WATER 3 TO 4 INCHES DEEP ALONG HIGHWAY 60 BETWEEN
            KEVIL AND HEATH WHERE THE 4 LANE BECOMES A 2 LANE.

&&

PATS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
118 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
09/22/2006                   MCCRACKEN          KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CHAMPION CREEK AT HOUSER ROAD AND OLD MAYFIELD ROAD IS
            OUT OF ITS BANK WITH 1 FOOT OF WATER OVER THE ROAD.
            CROOKED CREEK IS OUT OF ITS BANKS AT BUCKNER LANE.

&&

PATS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
223 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

KYZ003-004-222030-
BALLARD KY-CARLISLE KY-
223 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...LOCALIZED FLOODING STILL OCCURRING IN BALLARD AND CARLISLE
COUNTIES...

MEDIA REPRESENTATIVES SAID THAT RUNOFF FROM THE RECENT STORMS IS
STILL CAUSING PROBLEMS IN THE COUNTIES.

THEY REPORTED THAT THE CREEK JUST NORTH OF WICKLIFFE IS OUT OF ITS
BANK BETWEEN 145 AND 200 PM. MINOR ROAD FLOODING WAS REPORTED
IN BOTH COUNTIES AT THAT TIME AS WELL.

THE WATER SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

PS/BP