Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL ISSUES THIS PACKAGE WITH TIMING OF STORMS...MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER...DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION...ALL WITHIN THE
FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO.

BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE SYSTEM TODAY/TONIGHT.
WARM FRONT CONTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AT 18Z...THE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
PERRYVILLE MO TO THE EVV AND OWB AREAS ALONG THE OH RVR. EXPECT WARM
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BETWEEN BY 21Z. STORMS HAVE
REALLY BEGUN TO BLOSSOM ALONG THIS WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF EVV.
THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN STABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SO SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED WITH MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

15Z RUC MODEL STILL SUGGESTS A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP JUST
TO OUR WEST IN SE MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STABILITY AND WIND
FIELDS STILL LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. ALSO...SFC DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER
AND MID 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. IN
CONTRAST...THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE SYSTEM RATHER STARVED FOR
MOISTURE...WITH MID LVL DRY SLOTTING HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTION TO A
MINIMUM.

AS OF 1930Z...STLT IMAGES AND AREA WSR-88D RADARS INDICATED STORMS
FIRING RAPIDLY OUT NEAR SGF. THUS...HAVE CHOSEN TO DISCREDIT THE LOW
MOS POPS FROM THE GFS AND NAM MODELS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH
STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH HIGHEST
CHCS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE GREATER MID LEVEL SUPPORT. AS PER
SPC DISCUSSION...EXPECT ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
LINE...ESP DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...ESP IN DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE...OR BROKEN
AREAS WITHIN THE LINE.

WILL END ALL PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AS SFC FRONT AND UPPER SHORT WAVE
FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN UPPER TROF WILL
NOT COME THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESP OVER NORTH/EAST
AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS SHOULD
SEE SOME SUN BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

LOOK FOR A DRY AND COOLER PERIOD MON/TUE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. FROST/FREEZE MAY EVEN BE A POSSIBILITY TUE/WED MORNINGS...
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF WIND MONDAY NIGHT AND THE AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUDS TUE NIGHT.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE EXTENDED. CONTINUED WITH SLGT CHCS
STARTING IN SEMO WED NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHCS THU AND GOOD/BEST
CHANCE THURS NGT. CONTINUE LINGERING CHC INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND HAD MAJOR DESCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE 00Z SUN GFS AND THE 06Z
SUN DGEX. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS
SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. THE DGEX PLACES SFC HIGH
OVER WEST VA. AND RAPIDLY MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND PLACES THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH THIS IS THE WIND DIRECTION IN
THE GRIDS. SINCE THE WIND SPEED ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT
ANY WAY JUST FOLLOWED THE GFS.

AS FOR TEMPS MINOR TWEAKS HERE AN THERE MAINLY FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES. COOLED THINGS DOWN A LITTLE LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER THE
LATE WEEK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ROUGHLY
FROM WED THROUGH FRI AM.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

GM/KH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-031015-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
501 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE
STORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER
THE REGION. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

DURING THE EVENING HOURS...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER DURING THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPODEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
423 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088-089-092-093-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
114-022300-
ALEXANDER IL-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARTER MO-
FRANKLIN IL-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-MISSISSIPPI MO-
NEW MADRID MO-PERRY IL-PERRY MO-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SCOTT MO-
STODDARD MO-UNION IL-WAYNE MO-WILLIAMSON IL-
423 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...A LINE OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS EVENING...

THE LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH AND WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI BETWEEN 430 PM...REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 7 PM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS TAKE COVER IN A STURDY
SHELTER UNTIL THEY HAVE PASSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
440 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             5 W VAN BUREN           37.01N 91.10W
04/02/2006  E1.75 INCH       CARTER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MIKEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
450 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     HAIL             VAN BUREN               37.01N 91.01W
04/02/2006  E1.25 INCH       CARTER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MIKEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
502 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             PIEDMONT                37.15N 90.70W
04/02/2006  E0.88 INCH       WAYNE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MIKEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
537 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             PUXICO                  36.95N 90.16W
04/02/2006  M0.88 INCH       STODDARD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SMITTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
545 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-030000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY IL-PERRY MO-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION IL-UNION KY-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE IL-WAYNE MO-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
545 PM CDT (545 PM EST) SUN APR 2 2006

...A LINE OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA THIS EVENING...

THE LINE WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT 6 PM. THE LINE WAS
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH AND THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE FROM FAIRFIELD...
THROUGH PADUCAH...TO MAYFIELD KY BY 7 PM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF STORMS TAKE COVER IN A STURDY
SHELTER UNTIL THEY HAVE PASSED.

KH