Severe Thunderstorm Warning 497, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
216 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA. IN THE
MEANTIME A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IS
MOVING SLOWLY EAST. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
LITTLE TO NO CAP...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST GREATER THAN 2 INCHES.

LATEST MODEL RUNS STILL DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY AT
12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY BISECTING THE CWA FROM WEST
TO EAST AND THE NAM/WRF HAS IT ROUGHLY ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE CWA. MODELS ALSO BRING AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00 UTC SATURDAY. SEE NO REASON
NOT TO CONTINUE WITH A GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.  AS A RESULT...WE
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SINKS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE
FIRST 60 HOURS...WITH NO CHANGES BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KY...NONE

MO...NONE

IL...NONE

IN...NONE.
&&

JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
500 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
500 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
MOST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ADVISORY AREA IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT
VERNON ILLINOIS TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY. IN THE ADVISORY AREA...
HEAT INDICES SHOULD TOP OUT FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...HEAT INDICES SHOULD
PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE WILL EXIST OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM
SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A SOUTHWARD-DRIFTING
COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
339 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LANCASTER               38.55N 87.87W
08/10/2006                   WABASH             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            BRANCHES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE TOWN OF LANCASTER

&&

JG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
340 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST SALEM              38.52N 88.01W
08/10/2006                   EDWARDS            IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES DOWN IN WEST SALEM

&&

JG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
342 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             OAKLAND CITY            38.34N 87.35W
08/10/2006  E0.75 INCH       GIBSON             IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
345 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT VERNON            37.94N 87.90W
08/10/2006                   POSEY              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE...ESPECIALLY IN POSEYVILLE. TREES
            ALSO REPORTED DOWN IN MOUNT VERNON.

&&

JG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
353 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST SALEM              38.52N 88.01W
08/10/2006                   EDWARDS            IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES DOWN IN WEST SALEM. TIME CORRECTED FROM PREVIOUS
            REPORT. TIME OF EVENT SHOULD BE 300PM NOT 230PM.

&&

JG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
357 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
08/10/2006                   VANDERBURGH        IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF EVANSVILLE

&&

JG