Severe Thunderstorm Warning 447, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEFING WAS THAT THE GFS WAS SCREAMING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BUT
IT SURE IS HANDLING NEAR TERM CONVECTION WELL...BETTER THAN WRF.
MAIN COMPLEX OF TSMS IN VCNTY OF SURFACE LOW...SHOULD CONT ESE SLIDE
AND AFFECT MAINLY NERN PTNS PAH FA EARLY THIS AM. AFTER THAT IS WHEN
MAYBE THE FEEDBACK COMES INTO PLAY AND AS SUCH WELL USE GFS W/
CAUTION AND IN TANDEM W/ WRF. BOTH MODELS DIVE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS FA
BY LATE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST TO THE
WEST DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND EXPANDING EAST OVER ENTIRE QUAD
STATE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT WEVE UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FRI
NIGHT W/LOWEST MODEL MOS OUTPUT OF ANY KIND IN THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY.

THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN THRU BY THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY...THEREFORE WEVE ELIMINATED POPS
AFT 18Z. GFS IS FASTER THAN WRF BUT BOTH ARE QUICK AND HAVE BEEN
TRENDING FASTER SO WERE REASONABLY COMFORTABLE EXITING PCPN BY
THEN. CERTAINLY NUMERICAL MOS OUTPUT OF ALL MODELS SUPPORTS DOING SO.

AFTER THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE OTHER THAN THE ELIMINATION OF A
SLGT CHANCE TUE. WE CONSIDERED SHIFTING IT TO TUE NIGHT BUT THEN WE
REALLY COULDNT RULE OUT 20 POPS DEFINITIVELY FOR SEVERAL TIME
PERIODS. GIVEN THE DRY POST FRONTAL REGIME IN THE NEAR TERM...WE
DECIDED TO JUST WAIT TIL THE MODELS BEGIN TO OUTPUT A MORE CONDUCIVE
TO PCPN PATTERN. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE COMING TOGETHER BY DAY
7 BUT WELL FOLLOW THE USUAL ROUTINE AND WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY
ON THIS OUTPUT BEFORE INTRODUCING IT.

NEAR TERM NGM MOS LOOKS GOOD BLENDED INTO MAV/MEX MOS AND THE
COLLABORATIVE PICTURE IN THE MEDIUM-LONG RANGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1125 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-221630-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1125 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS...WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...
HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVIATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.