Severe Thunderstorm Warning 445, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
136 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WAS ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOTS OF SUN AND WEAK MIXING RESULTING IN 1 PM TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S WITH DEW POINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THUS HEAT
INDICES WERE 100 TO 105 MOST AREAS. QUIET WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE SKY SHOULD START OFF FAIRLY CLEAR. THEN AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...SOME CIRRUS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH OFF OF A LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WILL MAINTAIN OUR HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND FORECAST RH VALUES
SHOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RELIEF FROM THE HEAT APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RETROGRADING WEST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY CARVES OUT A TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER
TO DRIVE A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS PUSH THE
FRONT...OR INITIALLY A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY...ACROSS THE
FA FRIDAY. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. ON SATURDAY...WILL END THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE QUICKLY BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING.

LONG RANGE MODELS DEPICT A MAINLY DRY AND NOT SO HOT WEATHER
SCENARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS AND HUMIDITY MORE LIKE
JULY TO RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY.

&&

CN

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