Severe Thunderstorm Warning 428, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
140 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  FIRST IS POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND...AND EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. THEN HOW MUCH IMPACT WILL
EVENTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE HAVE ON TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
LASTLY...THE CHC OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN
TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY IN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

IN THE MEANTIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT POISED NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA
WILL BEGIN TO MAKE PROGRESS (ALBEIT SLOW) TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND BE CLEAR OF THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION SLIGHTLY COOLER..DRY...AND LESS
HUMID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO SWING AN UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP DRY
AT THIS TIME.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MODELS PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WITH UPPER FLOW
EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
WILL BE SLOW. THEREFORE...HAVE PUT IN SCHC POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-232000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
248 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OWENSBORO TO MARBLE HILL MISSOURI. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM HOPKINSVILLE KENTUCKY TO POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE QUAD STATE...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...A FEW
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME
MORE OF A PROBLEM ON FRIDAY...DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ON FRIDAY SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING SHOULD BE
REPORTED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
558 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCLEANSBORO             38.09N 88.53W
06/22/2006                   HAMILTON           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DOWNED TREES REPORTED IN COMMUNITY.

&&

SMITTY

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