Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING CONVECTION HAS A LITTLE IC LIGHTNING DESPITE LACK OF HITS ON
CG PLOT. ITS APPARENTLY ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN AND CONTAINS MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW CORES INTO THE 40S
DBZ. WE WL EXPERIENCE THIS ELEVATED WARM SECTOR THREAT THIS
AM...THEN THE COLD FRONT WL COME IN THIS PM/EVENING WITH THE SLGT
RISK SVR PER SWODY1. THUS LTL CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST SAVE
FOR CLOUD/TEMP TWEEKS.

FROPA TONIGHT WL THEN LEAD TO A DRY MON-TUE FORECAST WITH THE NEXT
CHC PCPN COMING TUE NIGHT-WED. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH AND AS SUCH SHOULD POSE A
MINIMAL PCPN CHANCE.

ANOTHER BREAK WED NIGHT-THU WL BE FOLLOWED BY A THU NIGHT-FRI CHC.
THIS CHANCE MAY POSE A LTL BETTER THREAT OF SVR WITH THE LOW IN THE
GREAT LAKES AND A MORE POTENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS REFLECTED BY
COOLER MEX MOS NOS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

SAT HIGHS WERE MUTED FROM MOS DUE TO CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS. WE WL
GO CLOSE TO MOS TODAY IN HOPES THE SAME DOESNT HAPPEN AGAIN. THE
NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR SO WERE CLOSER TO THEIR NOS IN THE MEDIUM
TERM...WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE NGM MOS. THE LONG RANGE WE ARE MORE
IN STEP WITH THE COLLABORATIVE PICTURE/HPC BUT MADE A MOVE IN THE
DIRECTION AT LEAST OF THE NEWEST/COOLER MEX MOS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
458 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-171000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
458 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
735 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

ILZ078-083-087-090-091-094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ112-114-
161303-
BALLARD KY-CALDWELL KY-CALLOWAY KY-CARLISLE KY-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-FULTON KY-GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-
HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-
MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-MISSISSIPPI MO-
MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PIKE IN-POPE IL-POSEY IN-SPENCER IN-
TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-VANDERBURGH IN-WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-
WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
735 AM CDT (735 AM EST) SUN APR 16 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...

AT 730 AM...PADUCAH RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
FROM NEAR MAYFIELD KENTUCKY...TO HENDERSON KENTUCKY...TO
EVANSVILLE AND PETERSBURG INDIANA. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT
COMMUNITIES SUCH AS BENTON...MADISONVILLE...AND OWENSBORO KENTUCKY...
AND BOONVILLE INDIANA BY 800 AM.

THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 55 MPH. THEY ARE
FAST MOVING AND FAST TO DEVELOP...DISSIPATE...AND REDEVELOP. THEY ARE
CAPABLE OF FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WIND...AND MAY ALSO CONTAIN SMALL HAIL.

THE STRONGEST STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL WILL AFFECT CLAY...DIXON...AND
SEBREE KENTUCKY IN A SHORT TIME.

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
818 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

INZ082-087-088-KYZ011>013-015>017-019>022-161351-
CALDWELL KY-CHRISTIAN KY-DAVIESS KY-HOPKINS KY-LYON KY-MCLEAN KY-
MUHLENBERG KY-PIKE IN-SPENCER IN-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-WARRICK IN-
WEBSTER KY-
818 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...

AT 815 AM...DOPPLER RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
FROM NEAR REIDLAND KENTUCKY...TO MADISONVILLE AND OWENSBORO
KENTUCKY...TO SANTA CLAUS...WINSLOW INDIANA. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST BY 845 AM...BUT WILL TAKE LONGER TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...AFFECTING
TRAVELERS ALONG THE WESTERN KENTUCKY PARKWAY.

THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 55 MPH. THEY ARE
FAST MOVING AND FAST TO DEVELOP...DISSIPATE...AND REDEVELOP. THEY ARE
CAPABLE OF FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
MAY ALSO CONTAIN SMALL HAIL.

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
857 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 AM     HAIL             FAIRDEALING             36.84N 88.22W
04/16/2006  M0.75 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

SMITTY

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