Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
320 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER PRECLUDES LENGTHY DISCUSSION. TORNADO WATCH
#162 CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT. FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION REGARDING LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS AND
WATCHES...REFER TO LATEST PRODUCTS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

ROUND ONE WITH SEVERE WEATHER OVER WEST KENTUCKY HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA. NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL REPORTS WERE RECEIVED. ROUND TWO IS
ONGOING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...ALSO PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. AWAITING
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY 06 UTC. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL PAST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12 UTC. UNTIL THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
LINGER UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW
EARLY SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION/MIXING WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. ANY MIXING SHOULD DIMINISH
BY EARLY EVENING...PLACING THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IN IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH WE ARE IN THE EARLY PART
OF THE OUTDOOR GROWING SEASON...I WILL LEAVE ANY CONSIDERATION OR
MENTION OF FROST ADVISORY POTENTIAL TO THE (DAY AND) FOLLOWING
EVENING FORECAST CREWS. A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT WAS PLACED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS A HEADS UP FOR AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...KEPT CURRENT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE SAME AS IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...TORNADO WATCH 162 UNTIL 01 UTC ALL COUNTIES.
MO...TORNADO WATCH 162 UNTIL 01 UTC ALL COUNTIES.
IL...TORNADO WATCH 162 UNTIL 01 UTC ALL COUNTIES.
IN...TORNADO WATCH 162 UNTIL 01 UTC ALL COUNTIES.

&&

ML

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
721 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-081230-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
721 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM DEXTER AND CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI...EASTWARD TO BENTON AND
CARMI ILLINOIS...THEN ONWARD TO PRINCETON AND SANTA CLAUS INDIANA.

THE GREATEST CONCERN IN THIS RISK AREA WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER DELTA REGION OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...EASTWARD INTO THE PURCHASE AND PENNYRILE
AREAS OF WEST KENTUCKY. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH
MARKEDLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MAIN HAZARDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN BETWEEN
NOON AND 2 PM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY START OUT IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AREAS OF FROST WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS WORKING WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS OR TREES SHOULD
MAKE PLANS BY SATURDAY TO LESSEN ANY DAMAGE DUE TO THE FROST.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
551 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     HAIL             FANCY FARM              36.76N 88.79W
04/07/2006  E0.75 INCH       GRAVES             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MIKEN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
557 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
04/07/2006  E0.75 INCH       VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EVENT OCCURRED ALONG HIGHWAY 62 BRIDGE CROSSING THE OHIO
            RIVER.

&&

SMITTY

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