Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
330 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT A SFC COLD FRONT HAD MADE IT TO APPROXIMATELY
A MOUNT VERNON IL TO POPLAR BLUFF MO LINE. IT WAS APPARENTLY SHOWING
UP AS A FINE LINE ON THE RADAR MOSAIC. MEANWHILE...A PREFRONTAL SFC
TROF/CONVERGENCE LINE WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE KY
PURCHASE AREA...ACROSS THE PENNYRILE REGION...AND SWRN IND...
RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IN THE HENDERSON AND EVANSVILLE METRO
AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS HOISTED EARLIER BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS
RAINS OF SEVERAL INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA. THOUGH THIS AFTN/S
CONVECTION CONTAINED LIGHTNING...THE LIGHTNING WAS RATHER LIMITED IN
COVERAGE DESPITE LAPS CAPES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. THIS IS PROBABLY
DUE TO WARM AIR ABOVE 20KFT THAT WAS LIMITING UPDRAFT SPEED AND
STRENGTH. STILL...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONT TO MAKE THE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS FILL IN AND
SWEEP THROUGH THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA THIS LATE AFTN AND
EVE. 12KM WRF SUGGESTED THAT EXACTLY THIS WILL HAPPEN. SVR STORMS
STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPORARILY CLEARING
SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNSET...ADDING SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...SHUTTING OFF THE PCPN...WHICH WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO JUST
SHOWERS BY THEN. AS THE PARENT MID LEVEL LOW SWEEPS BY ON
WED...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NERN CORNER OF THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND MID LEVEL RIDGING...WITH MODERATE TEMPS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
WERE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERNS...WITH NO
FAVORITE EMERGING. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE EARLIER PART OF THE FCST
PACKAGE HAVE A SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS BIAS BASED ON BETTER
INITIALIZATION...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PERSISTENCE IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WAS PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND DRAG A
SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PAH FCST AREA. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET
WERE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE TIMING...AND THE CANADIAN DEPICTED
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AS FAR AS TIMING AND HEIGHT
FIELDS EXCEPT FOR THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. IT SEEMED
THAT THE COLD FRONT COULD BE ENTERING THE PAH FCST AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTN...SO THERE WAS AN INCREASE IN THE POPS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD...LINGERING THROUGH MON WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLOWER FROPA.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN PURCHASE
AREA AND ALL BUT THE SOUTHERNMOST PENNYRILE REGION.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ALL COUNTIES.
&&

DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-131745-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST
INDIANA. THE GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING WILL BE EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BENTON KENTUCKY TO MOUNT CARMEL ILLINOIS.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST OF THE QUAD STATE REGION. THE MAIN
HAZARD EXPECTED WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO PENNY
SIZED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
415 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
09/12/2006                   VANDERBURGH        IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UPDATE...SEVERAL BUSES STALLED WITH 4-5 FEET OF WATER IN
            THEM. NUMEROUS ROADS BARRICADED. ESTIMATED THAT 50 CARS
            WILL NEED TO BE TOWED.

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
444 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
09/12/2006                   VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER IS STILL ENTERING HOMES IN LOW AREAS AND MANY
            VEHICLES REMAINED STALLED IN FLOODED INTERSECTIONS IN THE
            EVANSVILLE AREA.

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
448 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NEWBURGH                37.95N 87.40W
09/12/2006                   WARRICK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STILL ALOT OF HIGH WATER COVERING MANY ROADWAYS. MANY
            ROADS HAVE 2 FT OF WATER COVERING THEM. WATER TAKING A
            LONG TIME TO RECEDE. SPOTTER HAD 3.78 INCHES OF RAIN
            SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH 2.70 INCHES OF THAT HAD FALLEN FROM
            NOON UNTIL 430 PM.

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
449 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
09/12/2006                   VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER IS STILL ENTERING HOMES IN LOW AREAS AND MANY
            VEHICLES REMAINED STALLED IN FLOODED INTERSECTIONS IN THE
            EVANSVILLE AREA.

&&
THIS REPORT HAS BEEN CORRECTED TO CHANGE THE TIME OF THE REPORT. IT
SHOULD BE 438PM...INSTEAD OF 338PM.

CW