Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
445 PM CDT WED JUN 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AS CAPE VALUES APPROACHED 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A
DEWPOINT/WIND SHIFT LINE...VIGOROUS CONVECTION ERUPTED IN THE NERN
QUADRANT OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM OF SEVERE HAIL STORMS.
A SVR TSTM WATCH WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z FOR THE ERN THIRD...HOWEVER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THE 700 MB SHORTWAVE /ALONG WITH THE
SFC FEATURE/ SHOULD BE MOSTLY THROUGH THE AREA...AND WRN PARTS OF
THE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE WITTLED AWAY.

WE SHOULD HAVE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NRLY WINDS LATER THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE START OF A BRIEF
RAIN FREE INTERVAL UNDER DEEP NWRLY FLOW. NRN STREAM MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO IMPINGE ON A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY FLATTEN IT SOME DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CHANCES OF TSTMS WILL RETURN FRI NIGHT...STARTING IN
THE FAR NORTH...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY MIGRATE SWD THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS DON/T SEEM TO DEPICT THE ZONE MOVING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS SAYS. HOWEVER...TO FIT IN BETTER WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...AND FOR FORECAST PERSISTENCE SAKE...WE KEPT
THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL LETUP FROM THE
SW INTO THE NEW WEEK. MID LEVEL BUNDLES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTIES AS TO LOCATION...WILL KEEP A SMALL MAINLY DIURNAL
POP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH DAY7.

IN THE NEAR TERM...MET GUIDANCE HAD A BETTER IDEA OF CURRENT
DEWPOINTS...THOUGH TEMPS GOT AWAY FROM GUIDANCE THIS AFTN. GAVE THE
MET MORE WEIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM...THEN A COMBO OF FORECAST
PERSISTENCE AND AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
430 AM CDT WED JUN 7 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-081000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
430 AM CDT WED JUN 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AREAS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. BY NOON...ANY SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO CREATE A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 40
MPH. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AND END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. SPOTTERS MAY AGAIN BE ACTIVATED AT TIMES OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SPODEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
413 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

&&

JG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
426 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             CALHOUN                 37.54N 87.26W
06/07/2006  M0.88 INCH       MCLEAN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
429 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             CALHOUN                 37.54N 87.26W
06/07/2006  M1.75 INCH       MCLEAN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY