Severe Thunderstorm Warning 576, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
434 AM CST SUN NOV 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
NEARLY SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL S/WV
TROUGH. DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
REGION...AND BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AVIATION AND
HIGHWAY TRAVEL. WILL NOT ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ATTM...BUT THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO PONDER IF SIGNAL CONTINUES TO BE
AS STRONG IN NEXT RUN OF MODELS. HIGH POPS WERE RETAINED AND
ACTUALLY EXPANDED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS UNDER THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE MOST CONCENTRATED
AREA OF RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE-44 CORRIDOR. A COUPLE INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAVIEST ACTIVITY LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
LITTLE/SUBTLE PROGD SURFACE REFLECTION. ALL MODELS AGREE WITH
SCENARIO OF TRAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BELOW SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATE TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF MONDAY. THIS WOULD YIELD SLOW
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED IN HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT...WILL GO
BELOW GUIDANCE OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA...AND THAT IS BEING OPTIMISTIC.

DEEPER MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION NOW...WITH FROPA ON FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE MOST TEMPS AND
POPS ALONE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS EXACT TRACK/TIMING OF STORM
SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  54  67  49 /  80  60  20   0
HOBART OK         62  52  72  45 /  60  40  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  57  71  51 /  80  70  30  10
GAGE OK           61  48  73  40 /  40  20  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  52  65  47 /  60  40  20   0
DURANT OK         63  57  65  53 /  90  90  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/11

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