Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
234 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS CWA TODAY AND THIS COULD CONT INTO FIRST PART
OF EVENING BEFORE PAC COLD FRONG CATCHES UP WITH DRY LINE. DRY LINE
HAS BEEN MOVING EAST QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAT PREV MODEL RUNS WOULD
HAVE INDICATED. WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS GOING THIS EVENING ACROSS
SE OK AND SOME LOW POPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO KEEP RED
FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS... BUT WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

APPEARS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THIS LOCATION TOMORROW BEFORE MAKING A QUICK RETURN NORTH FRI
NIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS GOING EVERYWHERE SAT INTO SUN AS NEXT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONT THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WITH A DAY OR POSSIBLE TWO
BETWEEN SYSTEMS ROLLING OUT OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST U.S. TOWARD THE
PLAINS. SPRING APPEARS TO HAVE SPRUNG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  78  55  81 /  20   0  20  30
HOBART OK         48  78  55  82 /  10   0  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  83  60  83 /  10   0  40  30
GAGE OK           41  74  46  79 /  10   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     50  75  50  80 /  20   0  10  30
DURANT OK         62  83  63  83 /  40  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-
     OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013-
     OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021-
     OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-
     OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-
     OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-
     OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-
     OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013-
     OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021-
     OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-
     OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-
     OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-
     OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.

&&

30/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
215 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-311300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
215 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD
...TO EL RENO...TO CHICKASHA...TO ARDMORE...TO ATOKA. THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA INCLUDES ALL AREAS WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND EAST
OF THE DRY LINE....INCLUDING WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE DRY
LINE PASSES ANY ONE LOCATION...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
DIMINISH.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELL STORMS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL EAST OF THE
DRY LINE CAN EXPECT TO BE INVOLVED IN SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AREAS BEHIND THE DRY LINE WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STRONG WINDS AND AN
INCREASING THREAT OF WILDFIRES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRY LINE AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERY HIGH LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH
HIGH INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE.
THE STORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. HOWEVER... THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST FRIDAY MAR 31.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT AREAS BEHIND THE DRY LINE...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE
STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP TO THE DRY LINE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES SPREADING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWAR

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