Severe Thunderstorm Warning 539, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
247 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP IN A COUPLE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... WHERE A MORE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS BEEN
EVIDENT THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE OTHER AREA IS NEAR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS
OF A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS FAR AS THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
FOR TONIGHT... BELIEVE WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THAT ACTIVITY LIKELY DIMINISHING DURING
THE EVENING. MEANWHILE... IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY... WHICH IS LIKELY THE ACTUAL FRONT... IS BECOMING RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER PORTIONS OF NW AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AN EARLIER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-44 WAS LIKELY QUITE
SHALLOW AND HAS BEEN MIXING OUT. WE EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A MODEST LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WHILE A WEAK WAVE ROTATES OUT OF THE BASE OF
THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW AND LENDS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD TO THE EAST... AND PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY
MORNING... LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
WITH THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION
BECOMING MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE SINCE IT WILL TEND TO BE DRIVEN BY
LOCATION OF FRONT/BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS ACTIVITY. WE WILL SEE
TEMPS COOL A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY... AN EVEN MORE SO ON MONDAY AS A
STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AS THE GREAT BASIN LOW
SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  90  69  85 /  70  70  60  40
HOBART OK         73  89  68  85 /  80  70  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  95  71  89 /  60  60  70  40
GAGE OK           65  83  63  83 /  70  60  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  87  68  84 /  70  70  60  40
DURANT OK         77  97  73  89 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-
     OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-
     OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-
     OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-
     OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-
     TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.

&&

02/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CROWELL AND
VERNON TEXAS...TO LAWTON...TO SEMINOLE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 3 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SURGED SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. AT MIDDAY THE BOUNDARY HAD
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM FROM FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE BOUNDARIES. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING
STORMS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREATS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY AUG 27.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR DETAILS...REFER TO THE LATEST HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE
FROM THE NORMAN FORECAST OFFICE.

IN ADDITION...LOW HUMIDITIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO
CREATE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WHERE
GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY AUGUST 27.

06/11/02

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