Severe Thunderstorm Warning 528, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...RAIN...MORE RAIN...AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE GOOD
NEWS AS IT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. THE CHANGES WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL REACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
EVENING...CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE RED RIVER
VICINITY ON SUNDAY.

UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...THE VERY HOT AFTERNOONS AND WARM MORNINGS
HAVE PROMPTED A HEAT ADVISORY FROM INTERSTATE 40 SOUTHWARD. THE
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE TRIMMED AWAY FROM THE NORTH AS THE COLD
FRONT MAKES PROGRESS. FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ON
SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE FORECAST
HUMIDITY AND WINDS BOTH REMAIN MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN
TEXAS ZONES...SO WILL LET THE NIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE CALL ON REISSUING
FOR SATURDAY.

THE BIGGER OVERALL STORY WILL BE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...AND
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STORM
SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...DIGGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS WILL LEND BACKGROUND SUPPORT AND ORGANIZATION TO
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS TYPE OF
ORGANIZATION IS WHAT HAS BEEN LACKING WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COLD
FRONTS. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL DAYS OF WESTERLY FLOW HAVE CAUSED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN...WHILE MOIST LOW LEVELS REMAIN IN
PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS
TO BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS THAN IN RECENT WEEKS...MAINLY BETWEEN
MID AFTERNOON AND MIDNIGHT...OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL DECREASE AFTER DARK...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE...AIDED BY
A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING EAST FROM NEW MEXICO...AND A
MOIST LOW LEVEL JET. WITH INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTIONS TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE JET PERPENDICULAR TO THE COLD POOL...THE NAM
WIND SHIFT LOOKS REASONABLE...MAKING ONLY SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND SUGGEST DEEP FRONTOGENESIS TO KEEP
OCCASIONAL RAIN GOING TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR INITIATION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD
IN WHICH STORM MOTIONS APPEAR THE SLOWEST...AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT
APPEARS THE GREATEST...SO HAVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN IN THE ZONE
FORECAST.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE ACTIVE...AS THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH...AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER LIFTING SWING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING MORE
SURFACE BASED NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. WITH MID AND UPPER FLOW INCREASING...AND BACKED LOW LEVEL
WINDS...AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS PER SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK.

THE TROUGH SHOULD SWEEP THE RAIN CLEAR OF THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR. BEHIND THE STORM...COOL
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO TAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE
80S MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLOW WARMUP AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTING THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  97  71  91 /  30  60  70  70
HOBART OK         77  97  70  90 /  30  50  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  81 105  75  95 /  20  30  30  50
GAGE OK           69  88  66  83 /  70  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  67  86 /  70  60  60  70
DURANT OK         81 102  79  97 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-
     OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-
     OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-
     OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-
     OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-
     TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.

&&

BURKE/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-261200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM PERRY TO
FAIRVIEW...TO VICI AND ARNETT.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 5 PM
THROUGH 1 AM.

IMPACTS...
SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND TENDER VEGETATION FROM LARGE HAIL.
MINOR WIND DAMAGE TO TREES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 5 PM UNTIL
1 AM.

DISCUSSION...
BY LATE AFTERNOON...STRONG HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVER
KANSAS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE FRONT. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND 65 MPH WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND HAIL WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY AUG 26.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
BREEZY CONDITIONS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
CAUSE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS ALSO IN EFFECT WITH VERY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND WARM
NIGHTS. PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFER TO THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER AND HEAT
ADVISORY PRODUCTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND AGAIN SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND A MID
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY... AND POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM. ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
522 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORMAN                  35.22N 97.44W
08/25/2006                   CLEVELAND          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL 4 TO 5 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWNED. REPORTED
            AT SOONER MALL.

&&

TY

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