Severe Thunderstorm Warning 466, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER... TO CLINTON... TO
ERICK... AND INCLUDING ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 1 PM
THROUGH 9 PM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 1
PM UNTIL 9 PM.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT MIDDAY WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON... WHILE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
90S...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
REACH THE LOWER 100S. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
LARGELY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE
EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY AUG 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HEAT INDICES AS
HIGH AS 107 DEGREES...PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ORIENTED EAST TO
WEST...WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...PROVIDING A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY. A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REGAIN ITS HOLD... KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS... THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

30

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