Severe Thunderstorm Warning 445, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM STILLWATER...TO OKLAHOMA CITY...AND
HOLLIS AND A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WILL REMAIN FOCI FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING WITH
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. MOST WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO STRONGER FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

WET MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPEST PER 12Z KAMA RAOB
THAT IS REPRESENTATIVE FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  ASCENT
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A MORE HIGH
BASED NATURE LATER TONIGHT AS A VEERING PROFILE INCREASES WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLY ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES ARE WORTH MENTIONING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY REFORMS AND ALLOWS THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY
TO A WARMER/DRIER ONE. THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD
EXPERIENCE FRONTOLYSIS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING INDISTINGUISHABLE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMUP
WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE WITH 100
DEGREE PLUS DAYS RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE HEAT ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. AN EXTENSION TO
THE ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS BUT WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA AND STILL MOVING SOUTH
ALONG WITH PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT TONIGHT AND
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...WE BELIEVE THE MESSAGE FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT
WILL BE BEST RECEIVED WHEN RESERVED FOR THE HOTTEST DAYS.
THEREFORE...WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY GO AWAY TEMPORARILY WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE ADVISORY MAY RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
OR POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE FORECAST VERIFIES.

THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
THE LATEST NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION IS
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED DUE TO LACK OF MODEL CONTINUITY AND INEXPERIENCE
WITH THE NEW VERSION OF THE NAM...IF THE LATEST NAM VERIFIES...
COOLER AIR AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. FUTURE SHIFTS SHOULD MONITOR NAM
TRENDS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  75  98 /  40  20  20  10
HOBART OK         75  98  74 100 /  50  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 101  76 101 /  30  20  20  10
GAGE OK           69  94  70  99 /  30  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  94  72  97 /  20  20  20  10
DURANT OK         77  99  75  99 /  20  20  20  10

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ019-OKZ020-
     OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-
     OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-
     OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-
     OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.

JAMES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY... BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE FRONT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY AUG 4.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF THE ONGOING HEAT ON
PEOPLE AND PETS. THE GREATEST HEAT STRESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT... MAINLY NEAR THE LOCATION OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BY SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

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