Severe Thunderstorm Warning 433, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CAPPING AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
HELPED GENERATE A MULTITUDE OF SMALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET... BUT ENOUGH MAY PERSIST TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES. THE RAIN SHOULD END OVERNIGHT... AND NOT
RETURN UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
BRING A SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... AND IF IT IS AS STRONG AS THE GFS
ADVERTISES... WE SHOULD SEE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK FROM THE HEAT LATE
IN THE WEEK. EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT MAKES IT VERY DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN TEMPERATURES AND POPS... BUT WE HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS
IN THE LATER PERIODS AND CUT BACK DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES FROM TOMORROW THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY LOOK
QUITE HOT AGAIN. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TOMORROW... SINCE
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT MAY SLOW DIURNAL HEATING
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY MOST
AREAS TOMORROW. AFTER THAT... THE HEAT IS BACK ON FULL THROTTLE...
AND WE MAY NEED TO RESUME HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS IN A FEW
DAYS. FOR NOW... WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS... PARTICULARLY SO WE
CAN BETTER EVALUATE THE EFFECTS OF RAIN TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74 100  75 101 /  30  10  10  10
HOBART OK         74 102  76 104 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 102  77 103 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           71  98  73 102 /  30  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  99  76 100 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         76  98  75 100 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

22/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION...A FEW COULD PRODUCE
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...PROVIDING THE BEST FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...OR
PERHAPS A SMALL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN WOODWARD AND ENID...WITH MOVEMENT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY GREATER COVERAGE
OF STORMS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE MAIN CONCERN...HOWEVER...WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AFFECTING SMALL AREAS. RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REST OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO OCCUR MAY ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

STORM INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUL 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. REFER TO OUR FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION BEGINNING
SATURDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED...AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT
THURSDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAT EXHAUSTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR PEOPLE AND PETS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY INDOORS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
STRONGER WINDS MAY PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE DANGER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.

MAXWELL/BURKE

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