Severe Thunderstorm Warning 409, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MESOSCALE FEATURES WITH THE CONT
INFLUENCE OF LARGER SCALE WILL DICTATE PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS. THINK
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN GOOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH PRECIP CHANCES LOWERING AND THEN ENDING BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

FOR TONIGHT THINK CONVECTION WILL CONT TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MOVING INTO NORTHERN OK AND PERHAPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND N TX THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.
SEVERE THREAT...BEING MAINLY WET MICROBURST AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL... SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONT
OVERNIGHT.

WRF(ETA) AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SEVERAL MINOR MID LEVEL
WAVES KEEPING THE RIDGE AT BAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR SOME AFTN AND EVENING THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. WILL EXTEND POPS THROUGH THU NIGHT AT THIS TIME AND IF WRF
IS RIGHT MIGHT NEED TO PUSH THEM ON INTO FRI AS WE REMAIN NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE.

OTHERWISE WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES AS HOT AND MAINLY DRY WX
LOOKS TO TAKE OVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE IN AREAS THAT MAY GET MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL. THIS COULD AID IN GREENING UP THE VEGETATION AND THEREFORE
KEEP TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

FARTHER IN THE EXTENDED THE GFS BRINGS A BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE
AREA FROM THE N/NE WHICH MAY TRY AND COOL TEMPS DOWN ACROSS EASTERN
HALF OF OK AND COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN... BUT WILL LEAVE
EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  97  73  98 /  40  30  30  20
HOBART OK         73  99  73  99 /  30  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 100  73  99 /  30  30  20  20
GAGE OK           69  99  70 100 /  40  20  40  20
PONCA CITY OK     73  96  74  98 /  50  30  40  30
DURANT OK         75  97  75  97 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

20/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND
OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 1 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARDS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM 1 PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF INTERSTATE 44...AS STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND INFLUENCE FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HELP INITIATE STORMS. AVERAGE MOTION WILL
BE TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN
KANSAS...WITH THESE STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE
OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH...WHILE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASES.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...DUE A VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE AREAS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY JUL 12.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION AND HUMID AIR...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN. DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE EACH DAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH HEAT
INDICES REGULARLY APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. LIMITING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY IS RECOMMENDED.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

JAMES

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