Severe Thunderstorm Warning 397, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...ONE ROUND OF THUNDER PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND ROUND IS DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

RIDGE HAS FLATTENED ALOFT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING...AND
SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ONE TROF
WAS FAIRLY WRAPPED UP ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER...WITH THE
TAIL END SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MODEST
WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER TROF EASILY IDENTIFIED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS ENTERING
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SUPPORTING RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY PREDICTING INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS...BUT HAVE A GENERAL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO CROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP FOCUS THIS MCS FROM PONCA
CITY TO WATONGA TO CHEYENNE. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG AND EITHER
SIDE OF THIS LINE...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS ALSO SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE PRESENCE OF WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS. WITH DEEP MOISTURE...AMPLE
HEATING...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WOULD EXPECT REPEATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY...AND EVEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A STALLED
SURFACE TROF AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE
FLOW...PLACING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
MOVEMENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
SAME PLACES IT HAS BEEN FOR DAYS NOW...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
CHANCES TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTH.

SEASONABLE HEAT WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.  A FEW
100 DEGREE READINGS ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN UP COMPARED TO THE EARLY SUMMER...AND HEAT INDICES MAY BECOME
A CONCERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  97  73  97 /  50  20  20  10
HOBART OK         70  99  73  99 /  40  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73 100  74 100 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69  96  70  99 /  50  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  95  71  96 /  60  30  30  20
DURANT OK         76  97  75  96 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

BURKE/5

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...HEATING AND AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHEAST. A FEW OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUL 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MID WEEK...BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
7 AM TUESDAY.

05

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