Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 308, NWS Norman, OK

May 30, 2006Ellis County, Roger Mills County, Oklahoma

NWS Norman, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 30, 2006, 1:57 PM CDT for Ellis County, Roger Mills County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 30, 2006, 1:57 PM CDT (18:57 UTC)
Expired: May 30, 2006, 2:45 PM CDT
In force: 48 min
Issued by: NWS Norman, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Ellis County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 168 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 480 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -290 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1570 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 188 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 207 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Norman, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 30, 11:28 AM CDT, 2 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 30, 11:28 AM CDT, 2 hours 29 minutes before

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Hazardous weather outlook, May 30, 12:00 PM CDT, 1 hour 57 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-311200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER... TO
FREDERICK... TO CROWELL TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 1
AM...BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL POSSIBLE AT ALMOST ANY TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
SHOULD REMAIN PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT...FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AT MIDDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE LEFT SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS. ONE WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR
LAVERNE TO NEAR CLINTON...THEN BACK NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR ENID. WITH
RELATIVE WEAK CAPPING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS
THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS AND OTHER WEAKER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY STRENGHTHEN TO SEVERE
LEVELS...HOWEVER THE STRONGER STORMS WITH GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST
ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IF LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN BACKED TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR AT LOW LEVELS... THEREBY INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION IN THUNDERSTORMS.

IT IS LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING WILL ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES.... AND MOVE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL DECREASE WITH TIME TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
STABILIZE... BUT THE CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY
CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 31.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
DECREASING ON THURSDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY MAY 31.

24/2

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 30, 12:32 PM CDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 30, 1:27 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 30, 1:47 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 30, 1:52 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Norman, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 29, 7:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Alfalfa	59 min
May 29, 7:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Grant	54 min
May 29, 7:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Woods	44 min
May 29, 8:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Major, Woods	60 min
May 30, 1:32 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Custer	13 min
May 30, 1:42 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Custer	48 min
May 30, 2:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Roger Mills	44 min
May 30, 3:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Roger Mills	45 min
May 30, 4:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Roger Mills	44 min
May 30, 4:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Alfalfa	46 min
May 30, 4:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Roger Mills	46 min
May 30, 5:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Garfield, Grant	48 min
May 30, 5:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Beckham	41 min
May 30, 6:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Beckham	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.