Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
208 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THIS WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAST MOVING WAVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
OKLAHOMA WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT IN A RESIDENT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DRIVE SEVERAL FRONTS INTO THE STATE, BUT NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH.
THIS IS THE REASON FOR A MENTION OF RAIN IN MOST PARTS OF THE STATE
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATE FRONT SHOULD APPROACH OK MIDDAY
MONDAY. THIS WEAK FRONT MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF
THE STATE, BUT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE A STRONGER
WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY
PROVIDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WEAK, BUT SUFFICIENT LIFT TO
GENERATE MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEPENDING ON WHERE MONDAYS BOUNDARY
LAY. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER NM-TX PAHANDLE WILL NOT BE STRONG,
THERE MAY BE A WEAK DRYLINE LATE TUESDAY WEST OF OK. STORMS COULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN OK LATE TUESDAY FROM THIS BOUNDARY, BUT A STRONGER
FRONT FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER WAVE WEDNESDAY WILL
PROVIDE A MORE SYNOPTIC FOCUS FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY MOVE OUT OF OK, SO THE
MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
IF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST AFTER THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WOULD BE THE DAYS WITH THE LOWEST OR NO PROBABILITY OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  82  57  84 /  10  20  20  20
HOBART OK         55  85  56  86 /  10   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  87  59  87 /  10   0  20  20
GAGE OK           47  81  54  85 /  10  20  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     53  80  56  83 /  10  30  20  20
DURANT OK         59  83  62  86 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
300 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM NEWKIRK...TO PERRY AND STILLWATER.

TIMING...
THROUGH 8 PM.

IMPACTS...
WINDS TO 65 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ARE POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTION...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD MONITOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH MID EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY...AND INFLUENCE FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
HIGH CLOUD BASES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STORMS TO CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MID
EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAY 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES ON MONDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BRINGING
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO
THE AREA AND MULTIPLE SURFACE FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY
AND WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MOST DAYS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY.

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