Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
303 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST. HAVE GOTTEN SOME CLEARING AND HEATING IN
A SMALL PERT OF SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHICH HAS ALLOWED SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE ELEVATED IN
NATURE FARTHER WHERE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER.
WILL INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES AREAWIDE. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. AND HAVE KEPT THE CATEGORICAL POPS IN MOST
AREAS. THERE ARE SIGNS OF DRYSLOT DEVELOPING THAT MAY IMPACT
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWESTERN OR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING... BUT STILL THINK CHANCES OF RAIN ARE
HIGH BEFORE THIS. SOME PORTIONS OF NOBLE AND KAY COUNTIES RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN TODAY... BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER SOUTH SO HAVE NOT ISSUED FFA IN
THIS AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND PERIOD AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA. EVEN AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH... SOME
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  67  49  78 / 100  40  20  10
HOBART OK         52  71  48  80 / 100  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  74  50  84 / 100  30  10  10
GAGE OK           46  65  45  78 /  90  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  64  48  74 / 100  50  40  20
DURANT OK         61  71  51  81 / 100  70  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
450 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
450 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS
AND ALL OF WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUANAH...TO VERNON...
AND ARCHER CITY. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH OF THE MODERATE RISK
AREA.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
LATER TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA...WHICH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL...WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND TORNADOES.
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES. STORMS IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA WILL CONTAIN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL
WIND SHEAR...WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A
SURFACE LOW...WARM FRONT...AND DRYLINE...IN WEST TEXAS... IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... OR FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
LUBBOCK AND ABILENE. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
GREATER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THAN THE STORMS FARTHER NORTH...AND
COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA...WITH
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL...WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THESE
STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY APR 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN EXCESSIVE
SHORT-DURATION RAINFALL RATES...AND LOCAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY.

A FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.

CMS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

OKZ024-025-027>029-282045-
CANADIAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-CLEVELAND OK-GRADY OK-MCCLAIN OK-
315 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CANADIAN...CLEVELAND...
GRADY...MCCLAIN AND OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
354 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

TXZ087-282115-
KNOX TX-
354 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR KNOX COUNTY.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GILLILAND TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF KNOX CITY AT 354 PM CDT...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
448 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

OKZ033-282215-
HARMON OK-
448 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARMON COUNTY.

AT 448 PM...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF
SHAMROCK IN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. ON ITS PRESENT
COURSE...THIS STORM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN HARMON COUNTY BETWEEN
510 PM AND 520 PM.

PEOPLE IN HARMON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
457 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

OKZ033-282215-
HARMON OK-
457 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARMON COUNTY.

AT 457 PM...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WELLINGTON IN
COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS STORM AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN HARMON COUNTY.

PEOPLE IN HARMON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

JAMES