Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
314 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CANCEL RED FLAG WARNING EARLY AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN HIGH TO VERY HIGH CATEGORY. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE EVOLUTION OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE APPEARS TO
OFFER BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IN SHORT TERM. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
VECTORS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED FLOW ACROSS
THIS AREA ALSO APPEARS TO OFFER BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES. DRYLINE
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF STATE WILL ALSO BE FOCUS FOR STORMS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS FARTHER SOUTH. STORMS COULD EVOLVE
INTO LINEAR COMPLEX AS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDY...WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
LINGERING CHANCES OF STORMS OR RAIN SHOWERS DURING FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS MORE WITH MAV NUMBERS WHICH SUGGEST LESS
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS WEST.

SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO MOST OF
THURSDAY BEFORE SOUTHWEST LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA.  APPEARS
AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  57  42  66 /  50  30  10   0
HOBART OK         47  59  39  69 /  30  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  61  43  68 /  30  10  10   0
GAGE OK           40  60  32  68 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  55  39  66 /  60  40  10   0
DURANT OK         60  64  47  69 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

SIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
145 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SEMINOLE...TO
PAULS VALLEY...TO DUNCAN...TO NEAR THE RED RIVER SOUTH OF ALTUS. THE
SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING WOODWARD AND ELK
CITY...BEFORE STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW STORMS WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACTS...
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL
NEAR THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERSONNEL IN AND NEAR THE MODERATE RISK AREA
SHOULD BE READY FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE....AND
LISTEN CLOSELY FOR WEATHER UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX MIX OF BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THESE
BOUNDARIES. BY MID AFTERNOON...THE FRONT AND DRY LINE ARE EXPECTED
TO INTERSECT NEAR THE RED RIVER SOUTH OF ALTUS...WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR WAYNOKA AND THE DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTH TO NEAR QUANAH AND MUNDAY TEXAS. FINALLY...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIE FROM NEAR
WAYNOKA...SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR GUTHRIE AND CHANDLER.

A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL
WARM ENOUGH TO BREAK THE INVERSION.  ONCE STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL
BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST AT ABOUT 25 MPH. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH STORMS MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE DRYLINE.

IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP AS DISCRETE CELLS... RATHER THAN A SOLID
LINE OF STORMS... VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN HAVE A HIGHER POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE TORNADOES... VERY LARGE HAIL... AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING... AND THEN ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER LINE OR CLUSTER AS THEY
TURN SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK TO A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF ANY DEVELOPING STORMS... AND
WHETHER THE STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES... WILL BE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA...
PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY APR 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...95 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. SHIFTING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
DIFFICULT FIREFIGHTING CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS MY RESULT IN AREAS OF FROST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. LOCAL FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
404 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     HAIL             4 E LUTHER              35.66N 97.11W
04/24/2006  E0.88 INCH       LINCOLN            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JPIKE

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