Fire Weather Watch 21, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD...TO EL RENO...TO DUNCAN...AND
HENRIETTA TEXAS.

TIMING...
PRIMARILY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 70 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE WILL REACH WESTERN EDGES OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH HEATING AND CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STRONG SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 70 MPH.

THE DRYLINE HAS MOVED SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...RESULTING IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA BEING ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO INCLUDE DUNCAN...
WAURIKA...AND HENRIETTA. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND 9 PM...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
MOVING EAST WITH IT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY APR 7.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE DRYLINE PASSES.
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THESE
WINDS MAY EXPAND FARTHER EASTWARD LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...LOW
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE DANGER
BEHIND THE DRYLINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 WILL OVERSPREAD
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

JAMES

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