Wind Chill Watch 1, NWS Spokane, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
223 PM PST MON NOV 27 2006

.SYNOPSIS...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY BITTER COLD AIR. THIS DRY YET COLD ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...A DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL
TRACK FROM NW WA...ACROSS ERN WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN HIGH...7-8 DEGREES C/KM FROM 850-500MB...
WHICH WILL HELP FUEL THE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...OUR ATTENTION IS FOCUSED TO THE
NORTH WHERE AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...THIS FRONT IS
SQUEEZING DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DROPPING ALL DAY AND NORTH WINDS ARE BLOWING. WILL SEE THIS TREND
CONTINUE...SPILLING THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE OKANOGAN
HIGHLANDS...WATERVILLE PLATEAU...WRN BASIN OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BEGIN
IN NORTH IDAHO THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MAKES ANOTHER RUN DOWN THE
PURCELL TRENCH TOWARD KCOE AND EVENTUALLY KGEG. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL BE WEAK WITH MOST OF THE FORCING DRIVEN BY THE FRONTOGENESIS OF
THE BOUNDARY. ANTICIPATE THE TERRAIN TO DEFLECT MUCH OF THE FRONTS
PROGRESS...CREATING LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE. A BAND OF SNOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON PWATS OF 0.1-0.2
INCHES...THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...LEADING TO VERY
DRY FLUFFY SNOW AND SNOW RATIOS OF AROUND 20:1. YET SNOW AMOUNTS OF
1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE THE CONVERGENCE WOULD BE THE
STRONGEST. DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS...ANTICIPATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY WHERE A BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP
OVER THE PALOUSE AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY FALLING APART...YET LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT AREA.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE DRY AND STABLE COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NRN TIER ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE -9 TO -12C RANGE
WILL LEAD TO SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISES DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...MAKING IT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY. RFOX.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WIND CHILL WATCH ISSUED TO
ADDRESS DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND NORTHERLY
WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILL READINGS AT AND BELOW -20 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. ACCESSING ANOMALY INFORMATION...SUCH AS THE SREF AND
MREF...SHOWS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS INTRUSION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS DOWN
JUST UNDER THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS TO THE COLD SIDE OF WHAT WOULD
BE CONSIDERED NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS WE ARE ADDRESSING AN
OCCURRENCE OF A RARE EVENT IN TERMS OF COLD TEMPERATURE...HOWEVER A
QUICK CHECK OF RECORDS LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING DO NOT
SHOW ANY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT AT PRESENT.
THIS REALLY IS NOT CONTRADICTORY AS MAJORITY OF COOLING WITH THIS
EVENT DUE TO ADVECTION WITH THE INCOMING ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE NORTH
AND WITH THIS OCCURRENCE THERE WILL BE SOME WIND...WHILE I WOULD SAY
MOST RECORD LOWS IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO ARE
MORE TYPICALLY BROUGHT ABOUT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING INVOLVING
MINIMAL WIND. HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORING NORTHERLY
WINDS...AND THESE WOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE LARGER GAPS SUCH AS
THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND THE PURCELL TRENCH WHERE THE CITIES OF
BONNERS FERRY...SANDPOINT...AND COEUR D ALENE ARE LOCATED. WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER USED AS A SEGUE
FOR THE NEXT APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE FAR OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS TRANSIENT SYSTEM...CONSISTING OF A RATHER FAST
MOVING WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COUPLET WITH A MODERATE FETCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO ENHANCE INTO PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...
UNTIL TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES ARE BETTER RESOLVED...WILL
INCREASE POPS TO REFLECT THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LIKELIEST DAY FOR
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS SUGGEST ALL SNOW DOWN TO THE LOWEST
VALLEYS...BUT FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN
MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW UNDER THE EAST FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THIS MODEL CONSENSUS
BREAKING DOWN IN THE LATER REACHES OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL
NATURE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE OF A
GRADUAL MODERATING OF COLD TEMPERATURES WITH A GENERAL MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWER THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...THEN LESS
CONFIDENCE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND FLATTENING THE
RIDGE WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND SUNDAY AND A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND AS THE POLAR JET SAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ONCE AGAIN. /FUGAZZI

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTAINING COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES ITS TREK
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN A POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN WARMER AIR TO
SOUTH AND COLDER ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH SET UP AN AREA THAT COULD
SUPPORT PROLONGED SNOWFALL AS WELL. ALONG WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF
SNOW MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS MAY RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        14  18  -4  13   9  25 /  80  60   0   0  10  40
COEUR DALENE  14  16  -6  14   7  26 /  70  50   0   0  10  40
PULLMAN        19  22   7  14  14  30 /  50  60  10   0  10  30
LEWISTON       24  29  17  21  21  33 /  40  60  20   0   0  20
COLVILLE       11  14  -7  17   6  24 /  70  20   0   0  30  50
SANDPOINT      10  13  -8  14   6  22 /  60  20   0   0  10  50
KELLOGG        16  17  -2  17  11  26 /  60  60   0   0  10  50
MOSES LAKE     17  25   8  21  17  29 /  40  30   0   0   0  20
WENATCHEE      16  23   4  22  18  30 /  30  40   0   0   0  20
OMAK            6  12   1  18  13  29 /  80  20   0   0  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR COEUR DALENE AREA...NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

WA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS...OKANOGAN
     VALLEY...SPOKANE AREA...UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN...WATERVILLE
     PLATEAU.

     BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST TUESDAY FOR OKANOGAN
     VALLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
228 PM PST MON NOV 27 2006

WAZ043-282230-
OKANOGAN VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OMAK...OKANOGAN...BREWSTER...
BRIDGEPORT...OROVILLE
228 PM PST MON NOV 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON.

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
   BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST TUESDAY.
   WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
   SEAWSWOTX  /WWUS46 KOTX/

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ANTICIPATE SNOW SHOWERS WITH UP 2 INCHES IN
ACCUMULATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS WITH WIND CHILL READINGS OF -20
FAHRENHEIT AND COLDER.

IDZ001-002-WAZ035>038-044-282230-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE-COEUR DALENE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
SPOKANE AREA-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-
WATERVILLE PLATEAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANDPOINT...RATHDRUM...BONNERS FERRY...
PRIEST RIVER...COEUR DALENE...POST FALLS...HAYDEN...RITZVILLE...
COULEE DAM...ODESSA...ELECTRIC CITY...WILBUR...GRAND COULEE...
COULEE CITY...SPOKANE...COLVILLE...DEER PARK...CHEWELAH...
NEWPORT...KETTLE FALLS...REPUBLIC...INCHELIUM...WATERVILLE...
MANSFIELD
228 PM PST MON NOV 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
IDAHO...CENTRAL WASHINGTON...EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...NORTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST WASHINGTON.

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
   WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
   SEAWSWOTX  /WWUS46 KOTX/

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ANTICIPATE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS WITH WIND CHILL READINGS OF -20
FAHRENHEIT AND COLDER.

IDZ003-004-026-027-WAZ031>034-041-042-282230-
IDAHO PALOUSE-CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-LEWISTON AREA-
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-
MOSES LAKE AREA-WENATCHEE AREA-EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOSCOW...ST. MARIES...KELLOGG...
PINEHURST...OSBURN...WALLACE...MULLAN...LEWISTON...KAMIAH...
CRAIGMONT...NEZPERCE...WINCHESTER...ANATONE...PEOLA...CLARKSTON...
PULLMAN...MOSES LAKE...EPHRATA...OTHELLO...QUINCY...WENATCHEE...
LEAVENWORTH...MAZAMA...TWISP...WINTHROP
228 PM PST MON NOV 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
IDAHO...NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO...EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...NORTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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