Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
900 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

.NEAR TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
TROPICAL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND COLD FRONT RUNNING N-S THROUGH CENTRAL
NY/PA. MAIN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT HEADING EAST...BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL FRONT/UPPER
TROUGH NEARS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGERS. WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ONLY GO SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA FOR FAR
WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BACKED OFF POPS ACROSS REST OF
REGION WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA ALONG THE COAST IN MOIST FLOW AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 18Z GFS IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. WILL GO LOW CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF MOIST FLOW.

WHILE COULD HAVE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY GIVEN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT...ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE THUS NOT WARRANTING A FLOOD WATCH.

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND
COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS
ADVECTING IN A TROPICAL AIRMASS OF LOW 70 DEWPOINTS OVER MID 60
DEGREES WATERS IS ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER.

SO WILL UPDATE FORECAST BASED ON ABOVE THINKING AND TWEAK WITH
LATEST OBS/SAT/RAD/MOD DATA.
&&

.SHORT TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET AS THEY WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH EACH OTHER...NAM HAS ANOMALOUS 5H VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROUNDING
BASE OF TROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH HAS IT HAVE A SLOWER
PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT (ALSO NAM WAS VERIFYING AT
18Z A BIT FAR WEST WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS VERSUS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WHILE GFS WAS CONSISTENT WITH THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY).

INCREASE POPS AS DAY MOVES ON TOMORROW WITH COLD FRONT/LOW-MID
LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...CLOUD COVER AHEAD
OF THIS COMBINED FEATURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY (CONSISTENT WITH A FWC/MAV BLEND).

COLD FRONT AND CORE OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS CWA BY 12Z
THU...SO AFTER STARTING OUT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS WEST
AND LOW LIKELY POPS EAST...TAPER POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE WEST
AND CHANCE POPS EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED USING BLEND OF
FWC/MAV FOR TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KT SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS (M-U 80S) AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS (M-U 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR SO FOLLOWED A
BLEND...DEFAULTING TOWARDS THE 6Z GFS IN DETAILS IF ANY
DIFFERENCES AROSE. (NOTE 12Z GFS IS A DEPARTURE FORM THIS
ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY ON...HAVING A BIT MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM AND HENCE MORE WAVES MOVING ALONG A FRONT WHICH STALLS OUT
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME OF THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...WHICH WERE NOT PRESENT IN THE 6Z GFS
(AT LEAST NOT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE) SO HAVE DECIDED TO
DISREGARD THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION WHERE IT DOES NOT AGREE WITH 6Z
GFS/0Z ECMWF BLEND (BASICALLY FROM 12Z SUNDAY ON).

DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN HAVE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING FROM UPSTATE NY SUNDAY MORNING TO
JUST OFF CAPE COD/SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. FLOW
TURNS DOWNSLOPE MONDAY...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MONDAY DRY. A WAVE OFF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MOVES BY THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT (CHANCE POPS THEN)...WITH A SECOND WAVE FOLLOWING IT BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE INTO WEDNESDAY).

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS/VSBYS GENERALLY VFR ACROSS TERMINALS...EXCEPT VLIFR AT
KGON. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE UP AND DOWN THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...SHOULD SEE STRATUS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THINK
IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS LIKELY THROUGHOUT MANY TERMINALS AFT 06Z...AND
LIFR-VLIFR AT SOUTH-FACING TERMINALS AND OTHER TERMINALS IN FAVORED
ZONES (KHPN-KBDR-KISP-KGON). CIGS/VSBY SLOWLY INCREASE TO MVFR /VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SCT TSRA POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. CERTAINTY IS NOT HIGH ON EXACT LOCATIONS SO WILL
FORECAST WITH CBS IN LOWEST CLOUD DECK FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL REMAIN ACROSS AREA WATERS FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SCA REMAINING UP ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR SEAS
6-9 FT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH SEAS AS A RESULT OF THE
SOUTHERLY SWELL...WILL CAUSE ROUGH SURF WITH BREAKERS UP TO 6-7
FT...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION...THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.

TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT LONG
ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BACK BAY LOCATIONS...INCREASED WAVE ACTION COULD
BRING THEM TO 1.5-2 FT ABOVE NORMAL WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY REMAINING RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS FOR SADDLE RIVER AT
LODI...THIS SHOULD CREST EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR DETAILS ON
FLOODING ALONG THE DELAWARE RIVER NEAR PORT JERVIS REFER TO THE
LATEST WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON NY.

IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY GIVEN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS (NOTE PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AROUND 2 INCHES)...THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RAINFALL FOR SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE
EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THAT IS DEPENDANT ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS OUT AND WHAT THE STRENGTH IS OF ANY WAVES THAT RIDE
ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CTZ011-012 UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY.
NJ...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NYZ075>077-080-081 UNTIL NOON
     THURSDAY.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NYZ075>077 UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ330-335 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
      ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ338 UNTIL 4 PM
         WEDNESDAY.
      ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ350-353-355 UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY.

&&

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