High Surf Advisory 1, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
446 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS LINE OF TSTMS
ENTERING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NJ...FOLLOWING SFC-BASED THETA-E RIDGE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS WITH LI -2 TO -4. BASED ON CURRENT
MOTION...THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH WESTERN NYC SUBURBS BETWEEN 5-6
AM...THEN PASS OVER NYC BETWEEN 600-700 AM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL. AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...AREA MAY EXPERIENCE A SECOND ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE INCREASES
TO 1500 J/KG WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...SURFACE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH TO PROVIDE LIFT...AND SW FLOW AT ALL
LEVELS YIELDING UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. MODE OF
CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY BE MULTICELL CLUSTERS...THOUGH ANYTHING
THAT DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY COULD TAKE ON SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS. MAIN SVR THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS...BUT HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN CAUSING NUISANCE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY PUTTING SOME SMALL STREAMS IN NORTHEAST NJ
BACK OVER FLOOD STAGE. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS WESTERN HALF OF CWA IN
SLIGHT RISK...WILL ISSUE SPS AND USE ENHANCED WORDING TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS.

OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CT VIA MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS AND
FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES SHOULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY BURN OFF THROUGH MID MORNING.
WILL LEAVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NOW AND MAY NEED TO
EXPAND INTO WESTERN SUFFOLK AND NASSAU BEFORE THE NIGHT ENDS.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...PERHAPS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND CT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY...WITH DRYING W-NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MID LEVELS WILL BE
CAPPED PREVENTING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE...REACHING THE LOWER AND MID 80S EXCEPT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AT
SOUTH FACING SHORES.

H8 TEMPS INCREASE TO +17C ON SATURDAY WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POINTING TOWARD VERY WARM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S IN NYC METRO AND WELL INTO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.
TEMPS COULD BE DOWNRIGHT HOT ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...FOR THIS REASON DID NOT TOTALLY
BITE ON WARMER MEX HIGHS (94 AT EWR AND 92 AT LGA) AND FORECAST
TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SATURDAY. POP INCREASES AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL PASS
JUST OFF CAPE COD/SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. FLOW TURNS
DOWNSLOPE MONDAY...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MONDAY DRY. A WAVE OFF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND MOVES BY THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
(CHANCE POPS THEN)...WITH A SECOND WAVE FOLLOWING IT BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE INTO WEDNESDAY).
&&

.HYDROLOGY..IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY GIVEN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL FOR SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT
WILL BE EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THAT DEPENDS ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS OUT AND WHAT THE STRENGTH IS OF ANY WAVES THAT RIDE
ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 08Z...GENERALLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
AREA TERMINALS WITH VLIFR AT KISP AND KGON. KLGA...KEWR...KTEB AND
KSWF ARE STILL VFR AND MAY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW HOURS OF LOW MVFR/IFR BEFORE
SUNRISE FROM ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 14Z OR SO (EXCEPT FOR KGON WHICH WILL
PROBABLY TAKE A BIT LONGER).

A LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT TIMING AT THIS POINT...BUT WE/VE BEEN VERY UNSTABLE FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THINKING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS S/W TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. WILL
ADDRESS FURTHER IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08Z...SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 6 FT AT BUOYS 44025 AND
44017...BUT STILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY SWELL COMPONENT. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLIDE ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS...HIGHER
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE ACROSS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN IN
ITS WAKE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY MOVING SOUTH
OF THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

DECREASING SEAS HAVE PROMPTED US TO CANCEL THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH RIP CURRENTS SHOULD NOT BE AS DANGEROUS AS YESTERDAY...A
MODERATE RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT AREA BEACHES...THEREFORE
BEACHGOERS SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION WHILE SWIMMING TODAY.
&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CTZ011-012 UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY.
NJ...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NYZ079-081 UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ350 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ353 UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ355 UNTIL 2 PM THURSDAY.
&&

PUBLIC...GOODMAN
AVIATION/MARINE...AL

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