Freeze Warning 2, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
407 PM EDT THU OCT 26 2006

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT)...
TRANQUIL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLATED TO BE JUST TO OUR
WEST. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE INLAND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
CONDITIONS...SO SHOULD GET UNSEASONABLY COOL AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS AROUND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAV/MET/FWC NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY
CLOSE SO USED A BLEND FOR LOWS. EXPECT LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR
AT LEAST HALF OF PASSAIC...BERGEN...AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES SO WILL BE
GOING WITH A FREEZE WARNING THERE.

.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/SREF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW THINGS
SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES. WHERE NEEDED USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS TO SMOOTH OUT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF PRECIP (NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS SLOWER WITH
LOW THAN GFS...BUT FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TRACK AND STRENGTH).

EXPECT TOMORROW TO BE DRY WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS BY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. USED A BLEND OF
MET/MAV/FWC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...AS THEY WERE CONSISTENT WITH
LIMITED MIXING EXPECTED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE FRI NIGHT...BECOMING HEAVY
WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL. EXPECT HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TAPPER OF FROM SW TO NE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AS LOW PULLS AWAY TO OUR NORTH-NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT
WILL BE ISSUING AN ESF TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
MORE DETAILS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD.

IN ADDITION HAVE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG...GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS...AS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AT LEAST CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH A
40-50 KT 950 JET AND A 50-60 KT 850MB JET PASSING ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE RESPECTIVE LOWS AT BOTH THOSE LEVELS. AS A RESULT
HAVE GONE WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR EASTERN CONNECTICUT...COASTAL
NEW HAVEN COUNTY...AND SUFFOLK COUNTY. INSTABILITY DECREASES
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LOW BY SATURDAY EVENING SO CONFINE HIGH WIND
WATCH TO JUST SATURDAY. DO EXPECT WINDS O BECOME VERY GUSTY AGAIN
BY SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...AND
SHOULD NEED AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY IF NOT A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS WELL.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAV/MET/FWC BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT (FWC
HIGHS SATURDAY SEEMED LOW GIVEN EXPECTED RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...AND THAT COLD ADVECTION DOES NOT REALLY BEGIN UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH TO BE
REACHED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NOTING THE
STRONG S TO SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM). FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED
MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN NUMBERS AS THEY WERE MOST CONSISTENT WITH 850
TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
USED A BLEND OF THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...THIS IS FAIRLY WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GFS
AS WELL. EXPECT THINGS TO BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN SHOULD HAVE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THINGS WARM UP A TAD
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT GO
TO OUR NORTH...SO LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO
SLIGHT CHANCE. CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND LIFT NORTHEAST...BUT STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO STRENGTH AND TRACK TO WARRANT ANY HIGHER
POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. ANY STRATO CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. INITIAL NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT WILL ABATE BY EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED. THESE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON ALL THE AREA WATERS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THEN A STORM APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORM DEVELOP. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING TO AS
HIGH AS 13 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SUSTAINED...MAINLY ON THE
EASTERN WATERS...WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 KNOTS...AND POSSIBLY
APPROACHING STORM FORCE FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM
DEEPEN AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST. WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH LONG ISLAND
SOUND...SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTER WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6
FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
WATERS.

THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL INCREASE TIDAL
DEPARTURES...BUT WITH LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE BRIEF PERIOD OF
THE ONSHORE WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM DURING
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON HPC QPF...EXPECT BETWEEN 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
THE CWA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HEAVIEST WEST
(CLOSEST TO BEST DYNAMICS BASED ON EXPECTED TACK OF LOW-MID LEVEL
LOWS). EXPECT HEAVIEST RAIN TO OCCUR FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS NOTED IN SHORT TERM SEGMENT WILL
ISSUE AN ESF FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL...BOTH URBAN AND SMALL STREAMS/CREEKS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR CTZ007-008-010>012 FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 6
     PM SATURDAY.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FOR NJZ002>004 FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FOR NYZ069 FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NYZ078>081 FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM
     SATURDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

NEAR/SHORT/LONG TERM AND HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1123 AM EDT THU OCT 26 2006

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-271200-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1123 AM EDT THU OCT 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH
STORM SYSTEM WILL EMERGE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE A STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WINDS NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS. ONCE THE STORM PASSES
TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FROM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL RESULT IN MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND LOW-LYING AREAS. HOWEVER...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS GIVEN THE LOW STREAM FLOW
AND DRY PATTERN LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ330-335-338-271200-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
1123 AM EDT THU OCT 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ350-353-355-271200-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1123 AM EDT THU OCT 26 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WITH CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT...OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.