Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
150 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE POPS SEEM ABNORMALLY LOW (20-30%) GIVEN
THE APPROACH OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEM TO ARGUE BOTH FOR AND AGAINST. A
LARGE PORTION OF THE COLUMN ABOVE 750MB DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING FROM 1.28 INCHES TO 0.94 INCHES IN 6
HOURS. IF THIS HAPPENS...IT WOULD LIKELY SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WOULD
BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO TSTM DOWNBURST WINDS FOR THE TSTMS THAT DO
MANAGE TO FORM. ALSO...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP LIFTED INDICES
AT -4 OR LESS ALL NIGHT WITH TOTAL TOTALS NEAR OR ABOVE 50.

I GUESS THE UPSHOT OF THIS DATA IS THAT I WILL TAKE THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET AND GO SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE POPS AND WILL ALSO MENTION
THE POSSIBILITY OF SVR STORMS FOR THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN THAT SELS
HAS ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS.

WILL HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TOMORROW MORNING
UNTIL THE SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN AND SHUT OFF ANY CHANCE OF
RAIN. THE 1000-850 LAYER TEMPS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WONT
GET INTO NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING AND
PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MORNING.

SFC RIDGE AFFECTS THE AREA FROM MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS ON WED AND GENERATES A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR LATE WED NGT AND ON THU AS THE ASSOCD WRM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES
EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
SAT AM. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    57  66  37  63 /  50  20   5   0
CLARKSVILLE  56  62  35  60 /  50  20   5   0
CROSSVILLE   56  64  35  58 /  60  30  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

JLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...AND BRING A SQUALL LINE
WITH IT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
519 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     LIVINGSTON              36.39N 85.33W
04/02/2006                   OVERTON            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL CLOUD AND BASEBALL SIZED HAIL NEAR AIRPORT

&&

MGIRODO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
524 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NW SMITHVILLE        36.06N 85.95W
04/02/2006                   DE KALB            TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREES BLOWN DOWN

&&

JLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
533 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             15 S JAMESTOWN          36.22N 84.94W
04/02/2006  E1.00 INCH       FENTRESS           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER

&&

JLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
602 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     15 S JAMESTOWN          36.22N 84.94W
04/02/2006  M70 MPH          FENTRESS           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 2 TREES BLOWN DOWN AND 70 MPH MEASURED
            ON PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

JLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
605 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W JAMESTOWN           36.43N 85.03W
04/02/2006                   FENTRESS           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN WESTERN PART OF COUNTY

&&

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
607 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E JAMESTOWN           36.43N 84.85W
04/02/2006                   FENTRESS           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CHURCH ROOF COMPLETELY BLOWN OFF

&&

21