Severe Thunderstorm Warning 364, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1131 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.UPDATE...
MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH...
PRESENTLY POSITIONED IN NORTH MID TN. DRIER AIR KEEPS RAIN CHC LOW
NEAR KY BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH...SLUGGISH FRONT AND GROWING
INSTABILITY INCREASES TSRM CHC TO LIKELY. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENT. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006)

DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK SFC/LL FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. ALOFT...VERY WEAK TROUGH AXIS
UNDERCUTTING STRONG RIDGE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WORKING WITH THESE FEATURES...PLUS DECENT INSTABILITY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. COMBINATION SO FAR RESULTING IN SMALL
AREA OF SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA CORNER.

SFC/LL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE CWA
TODAY...AS WEAK TROUGH AXES ALOFT PUSH JUST TO THE EAST AND FAIRLY
STRONG LL HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION. BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA MOST OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH
THE UVV FIELDS REALLY WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT WITH TEMPS
AGAIN GETTING QUITE WARM AND THESE FEATURES IN PLAY...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AREA-WIDE.

ALTHOUGH THE SFC FRONT WILL BE SOUTH BY THIS EVENING...H8 BOUNDARY
STILL LAGGING BACK NEAR THE PLATEAU/SOUTH. MOST CONVECTION WILL BE
OUT OF THE CWA EARLY BUT A STORM OR TWO SEEMINGLY STILL POSSIBLE IN
NAMED AREAS INTO 03-04Z.

LL BOUNDARY STALLS TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY BUT A WEAK LL TROUGH
AXIS REACHES BACK UP ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER
A VERY BRIEF SEMI-DRIER PERIOD...MODERATE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD BACK
ACROSS THE PLATEAU SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WORK FURTHER WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SMALL POPS WIL BE NEEDED SOUTH AND EAST
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
130 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-051030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
132 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL MAKE FOR MORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY. SOUTH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT PUSHES IN...WITH RAINFALL
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES IN SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.

04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
119 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

TNZ056>058-060-061-041915-
HICKMAN-LEWIS-MARSHALL-MAURY-PERRY-
119 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING HICKMAN...LEWIS...MARSHALL...
MAURY AND PERRY COUNTIES...

AT 116 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH MARSHALL
COUNTY TO PERRY COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL.

JLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
239 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLLINWOOD              35.18N 87.74W
08/04/2006                   WAYNE              TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX BLEW DOWN A FEW
            TREES IN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN END OF WAYNE COUNTY,
            INCLUDING COLLINWOOD.

&&

ORCHANIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

TNZ027-062-042030-
DAVIDSON-RUTHERFORD-
256 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OBSERVED BY DOPPLER RADAR
OVER SOUTHEAST DAVIDSON COUNTY...IN THE ANTIOCH AREA...AND ALSO
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF RUTHERFORD COUNTY AT 2:53 PM.  THESE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS OF ABOUT 40 MPH
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. EXPECT SHALLOW ROOTED TREES TO BE BLOWN
OVER AND SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF RUTHERFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 3:30 PM. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CARE ON WET ROADWAYS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

END/ORCHANIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
312 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

TNZ063-042045-
CANNON-
312 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ENTERING WEST CENTRAL
CANNON COUNTY AT 3:05 PM. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS OF ABOUT 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
EXPECT SHALLOW ROOTED TREES TO BE BLOWN OVER AND SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN PART OF CANNON COUNTY THROUGH 3:45 PM. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CARE ON
WET ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

END/ORCHANIAN