Severe Thunderstorm Warning 363, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
939 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE MID STATE.
A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE MID
STATE. THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND JUST IN FRONT OF THIS
COLD FRONT. NWS RADAR SHOWS STORMS HAVE WEAKEN AFTER THE SUN WENT
DOWN. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE WATCH TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATER
TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES EASTWARD...ZONES WILL BE UPDATED TO
REMOVE WATCH. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE TWEAK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT ALL OTHER ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SFC/LL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OH RIVER VALLEY DOWN INTO OK. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGES STILL
HOLDING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH BUT ARE SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN AS WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAIN
CONTINUES TO APPROACH. COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY SLIDING
JUST AHEAD OF QUASI-STATIONARY LL FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOWS/
WEAK CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE CWA VICINITY
BUT DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS BEEN MINIMAL.

BREAK IN THE HEAT EXPECTED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG LL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND PUSHING OFF
THE PLATEAU LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD FAIRLY SHARP ML/UL
TROUGH AXES. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO GET IN GEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING WHILE SHORTWAVES ALOFT FURTHER STEEPEN LAPSE RATE AND
INCREASE INSTABILITY. LL CONVERGENCE ALSO ON THE RISE AS STRONGER
OUTFLOWS FROM APPROACHING COMPLEX AND EVENTUALLY MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WORK INTO THE PICTURE. PLAN TO KEEP LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH
SCATTERED SOUTH TONIGHT. EXPECT LIKELY POPS MUCH OF THE CWA SATURDAY
BUT WILL RAMP POPS DOWN WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT/UL
TROUGHS PROGRESS.

SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF CSV BY 00Z SUN BUT
LAGGING MOISTURE AND SLOWER PASSAGE OF H8 BOUNDARY MAY LEAVE A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PLEASANT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
DWPTS DROP TO AROUND 60 AND TEMPS STAY BELOW SEASON NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    73  85  66  86 /  60  60  20  10
CLARKSVILLE  71  84  64  85 /  60  50  10  10
CROSSVILLE   69  80  63  81 /  70  70  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
715 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NW GAINESBORO         36.38N 85.68W
07/21/2006                   JACKSON            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON JENNINGS HWY

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW GAINESBORO         36.38N 85.68W
07/21/2006                   JACKSON            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON JENNINGS CREEK HWY

0505 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 WSW NASHVILLE         36.14N 86.87W
07/21/2006  E50.00 MPH       DAVIDSON           TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 FATAL, 2 INJ *** SPOTTERS REPORTED 40 TO 50 MPH
            WIND GUSTS THROUGH DAVIDSON COUNTY CAUSING SOME TREES TO
            BE BLOWN DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY. A TREE FELL ON A
            CAR, KILLING ONE MALE AND INJURING WIFE AND CHILDREN AT
            ROBERSTON AVE. AND NALL ST. OVER 25,000 NES CUSTOMERS
            WERE WITHOUT POWER ACCORDING TO DAVIDSON COUNTY OEM. GUST
            FRONT EXITED THE COUNTY AT 530 PM.

&&

JORCHAN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
828 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

TNZ005-006-022>024-220230-
BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-MONTGOMERY-STEWART-
828 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

...STRONG TO INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...

AT 825 PM...A BAND OF STRONG TO INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WAS QUICKLY
APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE TN. THESE STORMS WILL BE INTO THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE AROUND 840 PM AND THEN
POINTS SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
ARE LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH WIND GUSTS SURPASSING THE 58 MPH LEVEL. STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

21

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