Severe Thunderstorm Warning 299, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
851 AM CDT SUN JUN 4 2006

.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPDATED ZONES AND INCLUDED POPS ACROSS ALL OF
MID STATE FOR TODAY. THIS BASED IN PART ON LATEST MOSAIC LOOP.

AN OLD FORECASTER ADAGE IS TO BEWARE OF NORTHWEST FLOWS IN THE
SUMMER MONTHS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL WORK DOWN INTO MID STATE AS
WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN AGAIN
TONIGHT...SO WILL TAKE A LOOK AT NEW MODEL DATA AND MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE POPS FOR TONIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE IS ALREADY OUT.

BOYD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 4 2006)

DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT DESCENT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BELOW THE 700 MB LEVEL. INSTABILITIES WILL EXIST BUT
WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. NEVERTHELESS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK DYNAMICS TO GO ALONG
WITH THE INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE PLATEAU...AS SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES...AND NO
CHANCE WEST WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER.

THIS EVENING...A 2ND DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLATEAU. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVE SHWRS AND
TSTMS THERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD AND DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS AS WELL. THUS...NO POPS WILL
BE IN THE FCST.

FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME VALUES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC HIGH...NIGHTTIME MIN VALUES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

IN THE EXT...MOISTURE WILL FINALLY INCREASE BY WED AND THU. WILL
THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE/SLT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 4 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-042200-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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