Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1008 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHING IN/EVV/SGF. SECONDARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTH IL/IA.
AHEAD OF FIRST BOUNDARY...NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE RUMBLING ACROSS KY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING MAINLY EAST WITH
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD MID TN. SEVERE WX HAS BEEN
MAINLY IN FORM OF LARGE HAIL...BUT SOME STORMS SHOWING STRONG
ROTATION. WE EXPECT SOME STRONGLY ROTATING SUPERCELLS TO MOVE
INTO NORTH MID TN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS
GOOD INSTABILITY AND CONDITION STILL QUITE WARM AND HUMID...SO
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET
ACROSS NORTH HALF OF MID TN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ANOTHER
WATCH BOX IS NEEDED OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY SVR WATCH. STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LINEAR AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH VERY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

HIGH POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MENTIONED ALL
ZONES. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED MAINLY FOR
WATCH CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006)

DISCUSSION...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD. ASSOCD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. SWLY SFC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SEVERAL SFC BOUNDARIES NOTED OVER THE MIDSTATE
AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS FIRING POINTS FOR CURRENT AND FUTURE
CONVECTIONS. WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN MOS TONIGHT FOR POPS DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE MOISTURE AND THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

TIME SECTIONS OVER THE AREA INDICATE A LARGE SLUG OF DRY AIR WILL
MOVE IN OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WITH RH BELOW 10% IN MANY PLACES
ABOVE 700 MB. POPS ARE REDUCED TO AROUND 20-40 PCT FOR FRI AND
10-20 PCT FRI NIGHT. AS THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW MOVES ON TO THE
EAST...SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...BUT THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.  THUS POPS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE.

MOS TEMPS AND POPS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS PLANNED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-261030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME BEING THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MID STATE AGAIN FRIDAY.
AGAIN...SOME COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED...
ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

GIRODO