Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
234 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH FRI)
CURRENT...CONVECTION SE MO- ERN KY MOVING MAINLY IN ERLY
DIRECTION...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING OUR NE COUNTIES.
CU FILED STARTING TO FORM OVER CWA..SO SCT TSTMS COULD POP SOON.
TEMPS IN MUGGY MID 60S TO MID 70S.

STACKED LO PRES WILL MOVE FROM WI INTO MI BY FRI. DONT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM THIS MORNING. BUT AS WE
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS MORNING (DEWPOINTS INTO MID 60S ALREADY W
1/2 OF CWA) AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED...COULD
SEE SOME GOOD TSTM ACTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SLITE RISK OF
SEVERE LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT..FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF CWA.
TONITE...DYNAMICS EVEN BETTER AND ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS LIKELY AS
COMPLEX MOVES SE INTO CWA AHEAD OF FRONT OVER OH VALLEY. 4.5 KM
WRF MODEL SHOWS ACTIVITY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND AFTER MIDNITE
TONITE...PROBABLY NOT BAD PROGNOSTICATION.

SLITE RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI WHEN FROPA OCCURS. BASICALLY HI
CHANCE POPS TODAY INTO FRI.

.LONG TERM...
GFS AND UKMET HINT AT CONVECTION LINGERING INTO SAT SO WILL PUT
IN ISOLATED TSTMS. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD...LOOKS LIKE
LATE SPRING WARM CYCLE UNDERWAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    88  66  88  68 /  50  50  30  20
CLARKSVILLE  88  66  88  67 /  50  50  20  10
CROSSVILLE   82  63  80  62 /  50  50  50  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-261030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME BEING THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MID STATE AGAIN FRIDAY.
AGAIN...SOME COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED...
ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

GIRODO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
440 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

TNZ005>007-022>026-251101-
BENTON-CHEATHAM-DICKSON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-
STEWART-
440 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

...STRONG STORMS MOVING ALONG TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY BORDER
NORTHWEST OF DOVER...

A BAND OF STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY BORDER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...FROM DOVER
EAST THROUGH THE CLARKSVILLE AREA TO ABOUT SPRINGFIELD.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS SHOULD
THEY BECOME NECESSARY.

BOYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
634 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-251230-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
634 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS DOVER...CLARKSVILLE
AND INTO THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A
FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE NASHVILLE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

BOYD

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