Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
258 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

.SHORT TERM...(THRU FRI)
ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NITE...WITH TEMPS IN 60S. CLEAR FOR MOST PART...BUT
CI SHIELD RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM W.

WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM SAVANNAH (SNH) TO
PORTLAND (1M5) THIS MORNING...ALSO SHOWING UP AS MOISTURE POOLING/AXIS.
THIS WILL MOVE LITTLE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. MEANWHILE...CWA
REMAINS IN VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
LOCATED OVER TX...AR AND OK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
PUSH...AND MODELS SHOW H5 IMPULSE IN SW FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
AFFECT CWA LATER TODAY. SURFACE WAVES MOVE NE ALONG FRONT INTO FRI
MORNING...AND FINALLY FRI THE NEXT H5 IMPULSE PHASES WITH STRONG
SYSTEM OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND KICKS OUT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO PLATEAU REGION BY FRI EVE.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOST LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND OF THE
HAIL/GUSTY WIND VARIETY. SPC HAS US IN SLITE RISK THRU PERIOD...AND
TORNADO CHANCES MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO NEAR SURFACE LO WHERE WIND
PROFILES MORE FAVORABLE...I.E. W OF I-65.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT AS WARM AS LAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.
HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 8.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...
HI PRES PREVAILS SAT AND SUN. RETURN FLOW ON MON. ANOTHER FAIRLY
STRONG SYSTEM TUE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    80  61  72  52 /  60  60  80  50
CLARKSVILLE  78  60  70  49 /  60  60  80  30
CROSSVILLE   76  58  72  52 /  60  60  80  70
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-201030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...
AND MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE COUNTY WARING AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER....MAINLY ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE
TODAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS
SHOULD KEEP ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION IF THE SITUATION WORSENS.

MAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
411 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-200930-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
411 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED QUICKLY ACROSS
WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AT 410 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING THROUGH THE CLARKSVILLE AREA. PEA SIZE HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

BOYD