Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WGUS64 KOHX 102037
FFAOHX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
337 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

.THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED...AND THEREFORE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

TNZ005-006-022>025-056>058-093-094-102145-
/O.CAN.KOHX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-060511T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-PERRY-HICKMAN-
LEWIS-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
337 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST PART OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. ALTHOUGH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL FORM
OVER ARKANSAS ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...THE STORMS WILL MOVE WITH SUFFICIENT SPEED SO THAT
THE THREAT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED.

$$
STEIGERWALDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
414 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD ACROSS THE MID STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH 300 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY AROUND 60 DEGREES.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TODAY AND THIS EVENING, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND
DAMAGING. THE GFS, WHICH FORECASTS STRONGER 0-3KM HELICITIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THE NGM AND ETA, APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST FORECAST
FOR THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN FACT, A 06Z
COMPARISON OF THE ETA, NGM AND GFS WITH THE MORE RECENT RUC SHOWED THAT
THE ETA AND NGM WERE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE RUC WITH THEIR LOW
LEVEL HELICITIES.

EXPECT FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM AN MCS, CURRENTLY ROLLING THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS INTO WESTERN
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED
FURTHER EAST.

WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF IS EXPECTED TODAY. A SECOND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT, WHICH MOVES IN WITH THE AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER EVENT,
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. THIS WATCH MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER EAST LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON,
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF OUR AREA GETS DOUSED BY THIS FIRST ROUND OF
STORMS THIS MORNING.

MAIN SEVERE WEATHER AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
AFTER SUNSET, WITH PRECIPITATION FINALLY ENDING FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS WET BULB ZERO VALUES FALL TO AROUND 6000 FT ASL, BELIEVE
JUST ABOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST
SMALL HAIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE
HAIL EITHER.

.LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL EXTENDED PERIOD
COMING UP, AS CLOSED UPPER LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO DIVE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH
THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY. LATEST GFS NOW DROPS THE CENTER ALL THE
WAY DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAKING FOR AN ABSURD-LOOKING
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH COLD POOL SETTLING
IN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HAILERS TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    76  56  69  48 /  90  50  30  10
CLARKSVILLE  77  54  67  44 /  90  40  30  10
CROSSVILLE   73  55  66  43 /  70  70  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BENTON...DICKSON...HICKMAN...HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...
LAWRENCE...LEWIS...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...STEWART...AND WAYNE.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BENTON...DICKSON...HICKMAN...HOUSTON...
HUMPHREYS...LAWRENCE...LEWIS...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...STEWART...
AND WAYNE.

&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
350 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-101030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
350 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL
BE LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE MID STATE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE
OF A COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
STRONG WIND FIELDS HIGHER UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE WILL BE A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE WEST HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE EAST HALF WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STEIGERWALDT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
301 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-102030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
301 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

... A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...IN NORMAN, OKLAHOMA...HAS PLACED
ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONG...DAMAGING...
TORNADOES. THIS POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS WELL...AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IT IS A GOOD IDEA TO TAKE A FEW MINUTES NOW TO REVIEW
SOME TORNADO SAFETY RULES. IF A TORNADO IS OBSERVED OR A TORNADO
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA...

...AND YOU ARE IN A HOME OR BUILDING...MOVE TO A PRE DESIGNATED
SHELTER...SUCH AS A BASEMENT.

...IF AN UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS NOT AVAILABLE...MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM...HALLWAY...OR BATHROOM...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
THE BUILDING.

...MOBILE HOMES...EVEN IF TIED DOWN...OFFER LITTLE PROTECTION FROM
THE FORCE OF A TORNADO. ABANDON THEM...AND GO TO A PRE DESIGNATED
SHELTER.

...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

...DO NOT TRY AND OUTRUN A TORNADO IN YOUR CAR. LEAVE YOUR
AUTOMOBILE...AND SEEK STURDY SHELTER.

19
BOYD