Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 07Z SHOWED PRIMARY LOW OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH TROF/DRYLINE THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME
WESTERN KANSAS. SOME SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO POP UP OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AT 08Z. TEMPERATURES HAVENT DROPPED OFF MUCH THIS MORNING
WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL BE STARTING OFF ON
THE WARM SIDE WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING.
SOME SPOTS MAY BRUSH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES THIS MORNING
BUT WITH 850MB WIND AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND DROPPING OFF A BIT
THROUGH 18Z WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH SPC PLACING
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER A MODERATE
RISK AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE. HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON POPS THIS MORNING
WITH 06Z MODELS WAITING UNTIL AFTER 15Z BEFORE BRINGING MUCH MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAIN PERIOD FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE TO
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

FOBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
420 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-301800-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
420 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...MAINLY WEST OF A BEATRICE TO LINCOLN TO
WISNER LINE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE
STORMS.

MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO COLUMBUS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA ALSO.

THE SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE THE RESULT OF INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
A CONFERENCE CALL IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY.

FOBERT