Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...

TIMING OF CONVECTION MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.

SURFACE FEATURES RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH TROF
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AT 07Z. SATELLITE SHOWING ACCAS
INCREASING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN 850MB MOISTURE AXIS. QUESTION IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL
DEVELOPMENT BE THIS MORNING WEST OF THE AREA AND HOW FAR EAST WILL
IT PUSH. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS BEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY STAYS WEST
OF THE AREA...BUT WILL MONITOR TO ISSUANCE AND ADJUST IF REQUIRED.
MAIN ACTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS
CONTINUED. PW INCREASES TO OVER 2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH
STORMS DURING THAT TIME. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SPEEDED THINGS UP IN
MOVING SURFACE TROF AND SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA YET FRIDAY MORNING.

HOT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 00Z
EXTENDED MODELS KEEPING THE HEAT AROUND INTO MID WEEK AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EAST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
SHORT TERM WITH NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO WARM MAX TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE LATER
PERIODS IF MODELS MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT TREND.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

FOBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1208 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-140715-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1208 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING AND WILL FURTHER STRENTHEN AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 90S TO A LITTLE ABOVE 100. HEAT
INDICES DURING THIS TIME COULD REACH 105 TO 110 DURING THE HOTTEST
PART OF THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HAIL OVER ONE HALF INCH
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT OMAHA.

ZAPOTOCNY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1214 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-131915-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBION...AUBURN...BEATRICE...BELLEVUE...
BLAIR...BLOOMFIELD...CLARINDA...COLUMBUS...COUNCIL BLUFFS...CRETE...
DAVID CITY...FAIRBURY...FALLS CITY...FREMONT...GLENWOOD...HARLAN...
HARTINGTON...LINCOLN...LOGAN...NEBRASKA CITY...NELIGH...NORFOLK...
OMAHA...ONAWA...PAWNEE CITY...PENDER...PIERCE...PLATTSMOUTH...
RED OAK...SCHUYLER...SEWARD...SIDNEY...STANTON...TECUMSEH...
TEKAMAH...WAHOO...WAYNE...WEST POINT
1214 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

THERE IS INCREASING SVR WX POT WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ESPECIALLY OVER NE AND E CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  ENTIRE OAX CWA IS BCMG
MORE UNSTBL AS STG SFC HTG INCRS THIS AFTN. ATTM...SFC BASED CAPES
ARE AS HIGH AS 3500 J/KG AND CAP IS WKNG ACRS THE RGN. AN 18A
SPECIAL SOUNDING WILL BE TAKING PLACE FOR OAX AND LBF AND WILL GIVE
US A BETTER LOOK AT THE CAP STRENGTH.  12Z UPR AIR ANALYSIS INDCD
VIGOROUS UPR SHRTWV TROF MOVG ACRS THE NRN PLNS INTO NEBRASKA.
ALREADY THIS MORNING...CNVTN HAS BEEN ACTIVE IN THE AREA WEST OF
NORFOLK TO WAYNE.  THIS ACTVTY HAS BEEN JUST BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
LIMITING FACTOR FOR LRG HAIL IS THE HIGH FREEZING LEVEL WHICH IS
ARND 15600 FT.

LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHUD INCR ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN AS STG UPR SHRTWV
TROF MOVS ACRS THE AREA.  SPC INDCS THAT SUPERCELL STRMS WILL DVLP
THIS AFTN AHD OF OF THE SFC TROF THAT EXTDS FM ONL SWWD TO LBF.
ALREADY 0-1 HELICITY VALUES ARE ARND 100-150 AND SHUD INCR AS UPR
SHRTWV APCHS. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STMS WILL BE DMGG WND.
ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVEL IS HIGH...BECAUSE STMS MAY BE SUPERCELLS...
LRG HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  SPC INDCS THAT A WATCH WL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

SMITH