Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
319 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...12Z UPPR AIR ANLYS INDCD H5 RIDGE AXIS FM WRN NM NEWD
INTO THE WRN HI PLAINS. UPSTRM...POTENT SHRTWV TROF ASSOCIATED WITH
A 70 M H5 HEIGHT FALL AT KTFX WAS TOPPING THE RIDGE OVR MT. MOISTURE
REMAINED LIMITED ACRS THE CNTRL US WITH H85 RIDGE AXIS FM ERN KS SWD
TO CNTRL TX. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WAS NOTED W OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WITH H85 DEW POINTS TO +10 C AT KAMA. 19Z SFC ANLYS INDCD CDFNT
ASSOCIATED WITH MT SHRTWV WAS MOVING THRU WRN SD/NEB. WRMFNT HAD
LIFTED NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND EXTNDD SEWD INTO CNTRL IA.

FORECAST...ATMO CONTS TO DESTABILIZE OVR THE WRN HI PLAINS WITH
LATEST LAPS ANLYS MLCAPE OVR 2000 J/KG. MLCIN ALSO SEEMS TO BE
WEAKENING OVR THIS REGION...AND WL EXPECT TSRA TO DVLP OVR THIS AREA
BY LATE AFTN. AS THE LO LVL JET INCREASES THIS EVNG FM WRN KS TO
CNTRL NEB...CONVECTION SHLD MOV SEWD INTO NRN NEB...AND FINALLY INTO
OUR WRN FA ARND OR AFTER 06Z. LIMITED MOISTURE/WK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR/WEAKENING LARGE SCALE UPPR LVL SUPPORT SHLD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY
BELOW SVR LIMITS. GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER THOUGH...SOME GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/SCT FOR AFTR
MIDNIGHT FOR THE WRN FA. HAVE REDUCE POPS IN THE ERN FA WITH THE
EXPECTED MOVEMENT MORE SRLY LATE TONIGHT AND IF ACTIVITY GOT THAT
FAR E IT WOULD BE PRETTY LATE. GOING LOWS LOOK TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHTS WITH SOME BETTER MIXING EXPECTED TONIGHT. WK CDFNT WL SLIDE
INTO THE NW FA DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE UPPR LVL SUPPORT MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PUTS THE FA INTO AN UPPR LVL SHRTWV RIDGE
PATTERN DRNG PEAK HEATING...WHICH IS NOT GOOD FOR CONVECTION. MID
LVL TMPS REMAIN FAIRLY COOL FOR JUNE...AND THUS THIS ALNG WITH
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALNG THE BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT
-TSRA TO DVLP DRNG THE LATE AFTN. HIGHS ARE A LITTLE DIFFICULT DUE
TO THE AFFECTS OF MRNG CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLDS. GOING FORECAST
LOOKED PRETTY GOOD...BUT DID BUMP UP TMPS A LITTLE IN THE NRN FA
WHERE CLDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLR OUT AND MIXING TO H85 SHLD OCCUR. ANY
-TSRA ACTIVITY THAT DVLPS ON SUN AFTN WL LIKELY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
BY MIDNIGHT AS LO LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTS FARTHER WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTM SHRTWV TROF TOPPING THE WRN US RIDGE
SUN NIGHT AND OUR WK BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS SHRTWV SHLD CONT TO
TOP THE RIDGE AND FALL INTO THE CNTRL US ON MON NIGHT. DO HAVE SOME
QUESTION WHETHER THE MCS THAT DVLPS OVR THE WRN HI PLAINS SUN NIGHT
WL DISSIPATE MON MRNG...OR WL SURVIVE AND CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE
NRN FA BY ERLY AFTN. IF MCS DOES DISSIPATE...REDEVELOPMENT STILL
LOOKS LIKELY ALNG THE CDFNT BY AFTN...SO HAVE INCREASED GOING POPS
FOR MON AFTN/NIGHT AS THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE ONE ON
SUN.

EXTENDED...HAVE TRIED TO GO WITH THE HPC PHILOSOPHY IN THE EXTENDED
FOR PLACEMENT ON THE FRONTS AND TMPS. LIMITED CHCS OF CONVECTION TO
PERIODS THAT HAVE SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THUS
WITH THE SFC FNT MOVING TO OUR S ON TUES HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TUES
AND TUES NIGHT. SHLD GENERALLY SEE DRY WX THRU THE DAY ON THURS WITH
NR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN CLIMO FOR TMPS. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
THEN TRIES TO SET-UP FOR LATER IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. WITH
UPPR LVL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...LOOKS LIKE A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR MCS
ACTIVITY. OF COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND HAVE
GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE GFS FOR THIS. HAVE INSERTED SCHC POPS FOR
THURS NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY NOCTURNAL TSRA
ACTIVITY. NEW GFS/EC HAVE STRONGER SHRTWV TO EJECT ON SAT...BUT WL
WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL RUNS TO JUMP ON THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

BOUSTEAD

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