Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT SEVERALS DAYS...
ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES. 08Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
FROM MCS OVER WRN IA AND NWRN MO. COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW
OVER CNTRL ND BACK INTO UT. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM SERN
WY DOWN INTO ERN CO AND ERN NM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
STREAM NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND 850 MB. TODAY...
EXPECT THAT MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIFT NEWD AND MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE GOING IN WRN IA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE AFFECTED SOMEWHAT BY THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LEFTOVER FROM NIGHT TIME STORMS. EXPECT THAT TO
BE A FACTOR TODAY...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. WENT CLOSE TO OR
JUST A BIT BELOW MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY...GENERALLY 90 TO 95
MOST AREAS.

THINK THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ELEVATED STORMS TONIGHT WITH ACCAS
FORMATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. GFS KEEPS 850 MB
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SHOWS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
8 TO 9.5 DEGREES C PER KM...OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY ON SUNDAY. TODAY WILL BE WINDY AND HOT....SUNDAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR. PREFER 00Z GFS TIMING ON BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. NAM/ETA SEEMS A LITTLE TOO FAST. LEFT PRETTY HIGH POPS
IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE 500 MB
FLOW AND A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

MAKE JUST A FEW SMALL CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. FLOW DEAMPLIFIES BY
MID WEEK...BUT THE A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PUTS US
IN NW FLOW ALOFT. SHORTWAVES MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO TIME. LEFT THINGS MAINLY DRY LATE WEEK...BUT THIS WILL
NEED ADJUSTMENT AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

MILLER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
113 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 SW SEWARD             40.84N 97.19W
05/27/2006  E70 MPH          SEWARD             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CZAPOTOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
121 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     HAIL             BELLEVUE                41.16N 95.92W
05/27/2006  M1.00 INCH       SARPY              NE   OTHER FEDERAL

            NEAR 48TH AND CORNHUSKER.

&&

CHERMOK