Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON STLT IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WRN SD WITH A
LOBE OF DRIER AIR/POSSIBLE WEAK SUBSIDENCE WORKING TOWARD MO RIVER
AS OF 1830Z. JET SEGMENT ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW...A LTL BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY AND SFC FRONT/TROUGH
HAD COMBINED TO HELP GENERATE FIRST BATCH OF TSTMS OVR NCNTRL
NEBRASKA WEST OF CWA AS OF 1930Z. LCLS/LFCS WERE MODERATELY
HIGH OVER THE NWRN CWA...BUT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING
SHEAR POTENTIAL AS JET SHIFTS FARTHER ENE THROUGH 00Z HAS PROMPTED
ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH THAT HAS INCLUDED NWRN CWA. FARTHER
EAST...CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN REACHED WITH MODERATE CU
WIDESPREAD...BUT 18Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWED A MIXED LAYER WEAK CAP
STILL PRESENT WHICH HAD AIDED IN KEEPING CU FIELD FROM FIRING...AS
OF 1945Z ANYWAY. BEHIND ABOVE MENTIONED LOBE...MIXING AND THE
POSSIBLE SUBSIDENCE HAD DRIED SFC DWPTS OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT SVR THREAT FARTHER E/SE OF CURRENT
WATCH TO MAINLY WIND/HAIL AS LCL/LFCS WERE EVEN HIGHER.
NONETHELESS...CATEGORICAL POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE HIGH AND JET IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO MO RIVER BY 06Z PUTTING ERN CWA IN FAVORED RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. WILL SHIFT HIGHEST POPS TO
ERN CWA AFT 05Z AND MARKEDLY DECREASE THEM ACROSS THE WEST AS JET
SHIFTS NE OF WRN ZONES.

GFS HAS BACKED ON CLOSING OFF AND DROPPING THE UPR SYSTEM OVER
NERN CWA ON WED...AND NOW DROPS IT THRU IA ON THURSDAY. THIS
SOLUTION BACKED BY NAM.  HOWEVER...A WEAK THERMAL TROF AT H5 DOES
ROTATE ACROSS ERN NEBR AND WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN ATTM ACROSS
THE NE. STRONGLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND MINIMAL COOL ADVCTN SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY THE FAR NERN ZONES.

LEFT FORECAST DRY WED NIGHT/THU FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH ANY FARTHER WSW
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COULD CAUSE FUTURE CHANGES IN FORECAST.
THURSDAY APPEARS COOLEST DAY THROUGH MON/TUE AS A MODERATE AMOUNT
OF COOL ADVCTN OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA.

MADE LTL CHANGES TO FRI-MONDAY PERIOD. AS UPR TROF BECOMES
REESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN U.S. RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NOCTURNAL TSTMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE...AND LEFT IN FRI NGT AS A STRONG LOW LVL JET RETURNS AND
SOME FRONTOGENESIS NOTED IN 850-700 MB LYR.

SOME POTENTIAL IN A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE CWA AS EARLY AS MONDAY
IF 12Z GFS IS TO BELIEVED...SUPPORTED A BIT BY THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...RIDGE THEN SEEMS TO REBUILD WASHING FRONT OUT. MANY
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS COULD DEVELOP...ONE IS THAT CONVECTION ASSOCD
WITH THE MONDAY FRONT COULD REINFORCE BOUNDARY WITH A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN GUIDANCE AND WHAT WILL BE REFLECTED
IN ZONES. THIS POSSIBLE OUTCOME WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...BUT
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO BASE FORECAST ON UPR RIDGE HOLDING FIRM
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE QUITE WARM TEMPS INTO TUE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

CHERMOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
907 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-241100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
907 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL 2 AM.

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY.

THE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED IN PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING.

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

FOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1058 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S UNADILLA            40.62N 96.27W
05/23/2006  E65 MPH          OTOE               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JRB

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