Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
432 PM PST SUN MAR 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND A LOW CENTER
NEAR 44N/131W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ASHORE. THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH RAIN JUST
STARTING ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA. SO FAR...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 3 INCHES (OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS) HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED IN THE WETTEST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH 0.3 TO 1.0
MEASURED ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH BAY. GIVEN THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THROUGH THE HEART OF THE BAY AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES
BY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM THE CNRFC THROUGH 4 AM
MONDAY GIVE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES TO THE NORTH BAY...WITH THE
MOST OF THAT FALLING IN THE WETTEST HIGHER-TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF
SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES...TO 0.5 -1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY BRINGING
AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1.0 INCHES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH BAY...THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE CNRFC TAKES TWO OF OUR MAIN STEM RIVER FORECAST
POINTS TO JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT...SO A FLOOD WARNING WAS
ISSUED EARLIER FOR NAPA AT ST HELENA AND THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT
HEALDSBURG. WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS EVENING...
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE NORTH BAY COULD ALSO SEE RAPID RISES
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE AT GALE FORCE AT THE
COASTAL BUOYS...BUT THE STRONG WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED OVER LAND.
THUS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED OVER THE NORTH BAY
AND BAY AREA COUNTIES BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AFTER SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...BRIEF RIDGING ALONG THE COAST
WILL OFFER A SHORT DRYING TREND UNTIL A WEAK BUT COLDER SYSTEM SWEEPS
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN IS FORECAST TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY LOW SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...
GUSTING TO 30 KT. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH
STRONGER GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN AIRPORT WEATHER
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SFO UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER...WITH RAIN
CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO MONTEREY BAY.

&&

.MARINE...STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 6 PM
AND FOR SFO BAY UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. MOST BUOYS AND COASTAL SITES NORTH
OF MONTEREY BAY HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO STORM FORCE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WINDS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON IN MONTEREY
BAY...AND WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER SOUTH. ONE
POSSIBLE COMPLICATION TO THE FORECAST IS THE SHORTWAVE INJECTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT NEAR 32N/130W. THIS COULD
REINTENSIFY WINDS ALONG THE COAST...AND STALL THE FRONT NORTH OF
MONTEREY BAY TONIGHT. MODELS DONT REALLY SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS VORT...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT
THIS EVENING.

HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR THE COAST AS LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
          .TIL 6 PM...STORM WARNING...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT
                   OUT 60 NM AND SFO BAY.
          .TNGT...GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS
                   OUT 60 NM AND MRY BAY.
          .TNGT...GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT AND SFO BAY.
          .TNGT AND MON...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR...SF BAR.
          .TNGT AND MON...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST TO
                          SF PENINSULA COAST.
          .MON...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...MRY BAY SHORELINE TO
                          BIG SUR COAST.
          .TNGT...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR...SF BAR.
          .TIL MIDNIGHT TNGT...WIND ADVISORY...SF BAY AREA.
          .TNGT...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MONTEREY BAY AREA.
          .THIS AFTN AND TNGT...FLOOD WARNING...RUSSIAN RIVER AT
                  HEALDSBURG AND UPPER NAPA RIVER AT ST HELENA.

PUBLIC FORECAST: ANDERSON
MARINE/AVIATION: WEAGLE/STROBIN/MORRISON

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1000 AM PST SUN MAR 5 2006

CAZ505>507-061400-
COASTAL NORTH BAY INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
1000 AM PST SUN MAR 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA.

DAY ONE...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTY COASTS
LATE TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH BAY TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL AFFECT THE COAST AND HILLS.

* HIGH WIND WARNING...SEE WWUS76 KMTR - SFONPWMTR FOR DETAILS *

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. THE RUSSIAN AND NAPA RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO
RISE RAPIDLY LATE TODAY. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER
NAPA RIVER AT ST HELENA FOR SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

* FLOOD WARNING....SEE WGUS46 KMTR - SFOFLWMTR FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT HEALDSBURG MONDAY MORNING.

* FLOOD WARNING....SEE WGUS46 KMTR - SFOFLWMTR FOR DETAILS *

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVELS WILL ONCE
AGAIN FALL TO UNUSUALLY LOW LEVELS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS BAY
AREA HILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ006-508>513-061400-
SAN FRANCISCO-SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-EAST BAY HILLS AND THE DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-SANTA CLARA VALLEY INCLUDING SAN JOSE-
1000 AM PST SUN MAR 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA.

DAY ONE...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TODAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE
FRONT. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY AREA TODAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COAST AND HILLS.

* HIGH WIND WARNING...SEE WWUS76 KMTR - SFONPWMTR FOR DETAILS *

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVELS WILL ONCE
AGAIN FALL TO UNUSUALLY LOW LEVELS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS BAY AREA HILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ514>518-061400-
BIG SUR COAST-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY/ARROYO SECO AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY
INCLUDING PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
MONTEREY BAY/NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY/HOLLISTER VALLEY AND CARMEL
VALLEY-
1000 AM PST SUN MAR 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MONTEREY BAY AREA

DAY ONE...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

WET AND WINDY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND BE STRONG AND
GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

* HIGH WIND WARNING...SEE WWUS76 KMTR - SFONPWMTR FOR DETAILS *

IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS. LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVELS WILL ONCE
AGAIN FALL TO UNUSUALLY LOW LEVELS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS AREA HILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.