Wind Advisory 11, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS75 KMSO 280628
NPWMSO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1128 PM MST MON FEB 27 2006


IDZ007-008-280730-
/O.CAN.KMSO.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-060228T1800Z/
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION-
1028 PM PST MON FEB 27 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. WINDS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LOWER HELLS
CANYONE AND SALMON RIVER REGION. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
232 PM MST MON FEB 27 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MILD AND WET AS PACIFIC SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO
STREAM WARM AIR...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE HIGH (NEAR 8000
FEET) THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SOME COOLING ALOFT OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES SO THOSE SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE 5500 IN THE NORTH AND 6500 FEET
IN THE SOUTH BY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA OVERNIGHT AND THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE VALLEYS. SO WE COULD
SEE SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS COOL TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
MORNING. WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE ONCE AGAIN ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF MISSOULA. SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL TRANSITION
THE RAIN AND SNOW TO SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. COULD SEE A
RAIN/NOW MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS...THEN SOME
CLEARING IN THE VALLEYS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...THEN COOL TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY CONTINUING THE MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN MONTANA.
BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW...WHICH
HAS BEEN SITUATED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...WILL SPIN OFF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOVE IT OVER WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND
FAR WESTERN MONTANA. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE COAST WHICH WILL SPIN INCREASING LOBES OF ENERGY OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY IN
FORMING A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO/SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA AND
MOVE IT ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW
PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN DOWN FROM
CANADA THUS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO VALLEY FLOORS. AT THIS POINT
THERE STANDS A DECENT CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS. HOWEVER ONLY MINIMAL (1-2 INCHES)
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY THE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ASHORE AND BEGINS TO
FALL APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER LONG WAVE RIDGE. THIS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND AND THUS
CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND BEGINS TO
WARM AND DRY WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO UNDER
SOUTHWESTLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO BEGAN BUILDING IN VALLEY INVERSIONS AS WELL AS
DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA THIS EVENING...OCCASIONALLY OBSCURING MOUNTAINS AND
PASSES. FREEZING RAIN IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS
IN NORTHWESTERN MONTANA...ESPECIALLY NEAR KGPI...MAKING RUNWAYS
SLICK. SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...DICKERSON/VIA
AVIATION...VIA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
343 AM MST MON FEB 27 2006

IDZ005>010-MTZ001>007-043-280000-
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION-
WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-
WEST GLACIER REGION-FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION-
243 AM PST MON FEB 27 2006 /343 AM MST MON FEB 27 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...NORTHWEST MONTANA AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING FREEZING RAIN THE WESTERN MONTANA
VALLEY. OTHERWISE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW LIKELY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 5500 TO 6500 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND
WESTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.