Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS55 KMSO 062017
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
216 PM MDT THU JUL 6 2006

MTC053-062030-
/O.CON.KMSO.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-060706T2030Z/
LINCOLN MT-
216 PM MDT THU JUL 6 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY...

* AT 215 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LINCOLN
  COUNTY...OR ABOUT 13 MILES EAST OF LIBBY...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 20 MPH.  THE STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY AROUND 230 PM MDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWESTERN MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4823 11575 4812 11553 4835 11495 4861 11517

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
952 AM MDT THU JUL 6 2006

.UPDATE...MINOR UPDATE SIMPLY TO CHANGE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO COVERAGE WORDING INSTEAD OF SLIGHT CHANCE. LINE OF CONVECTION
ALREADY GOING STRONG ALONG THE THERMAL/MARINE AIR BOUNDARY OVER
EASTER WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THIS LINE FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY AND WITH FAVORABLE FLOW FOR ORGANIZATION....EXPECT
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS...AS WELL AS HAIL. LATEST GFS FORECAST A BIT FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR A CONDON TO SAINT
IGNATIUS TO HEADQUARTERS ID LINE SOUTHWARD. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH MENTION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WINDS...AND
HAIL FOR MOST ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO AND WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA. THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE LOW
CEILINGS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL.
PLEASE SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 335 AM MDT THU JUL 6 2006)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WHICH CAUSED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY IS MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA CURRENTLY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING
OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO THIS MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING CAUSING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LOWELL
IDAHO TO SEELEY LAKE MONTANA. MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ON INTO CENTRAL MONTANA LATER IN THE EVENING. ON FRIDAY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA...WHICH MAY HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM AND
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. RIDGE MOVES EAST MONDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MAINLY
DIURNAL MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE LOW
CEILINGS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. PLEASE SEE
APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CHURCH
PREV DISCUSSION...SMITH/STEGEMILLER
AVIATION...CHURCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
610 AM MDT THU JUL 6 2006

IDZ005>010-MTZ001>007-043-071200-
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION-
WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-
WEST GLACIER REGION-FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION-
510 AM PDT THU JUL 6 2006 /610 AM MDT THU JUL 6 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...NORTHWEST MONTANA AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE AND WESTERN MONTANA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND  STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.