Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS55 KMSO 012341
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
541 PM MDT SAT JUL 1 2006

MTC029-020000-
/O.CON.KMSO.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-060702T0000Z/
FLATHEAD MT-
541 PM MDT SAT JUL 1 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL FLATHEAD COUNTY...

* AT 536 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS
  LOCATED NEAR WHITEFISH...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  EVERGREEN...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LA SALLE...COLUMBIA FALLS...EVERGREEN AND KALISPELL AROUND 600 PM
  MDT.

LAT...LON 4855 11447 4839 11473 4811 11445 4836 11403

$$

DICKERSON

000 
WWUS55 KMSO 012359
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
558 PM MDT SAT JUL 1 2006

MTC029-020008-
/O.EXP.KMSO.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-060702T0000Z/
FLATHEAD MT-
558 PM MDT SAT JUL 1 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL FLATHEAD COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 600 PM MDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS DISSIPATED HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN 
AND SMALL HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE AROUND COLUMBIA FALLS AND LA SALLE.

LAT...LON 4855 11447 4839 11473 4811 11445 4836 11403

$$

DICKERSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
300 PM MDT SAT JUL 1 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF
ENERGY IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES.
THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO STARTING TO FORM OVER
CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. I EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LARGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THUNDERSTORM MOTION HAS BEEN EXTREMELY SLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SUN SETS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AND RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TOMORROW WILL BE YET ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE BEST ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS OVER THE IDAHO
WASHINGTON BORDER.

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RIDGE MAINTAINING
CONTROL THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST NAM IS TRYING TO PUSH THE RIDGE
EAST ABOUT 24 HOURS SOONER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY TUESDAY (4TH OF JULY).
OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION AND KEEP THE RIDGE IN
CONTROL UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE
LATER TIMING OF RIDGE MOVEMENT. STILL EXPECT VERY WARM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY WITH WARMEST DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE
RIDGE GETS PUSHED TO THE EAST AND A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. A
PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE KEEPING THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND
WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SLOW MOVING NATURE OF STORMS MAY
CAUSE PROLONGED REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OBSCURING
HIGHER TERRAIN AT TIMES. PLEASE SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DICKERSON
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...VIA