Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS55 KMSO 220226
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
825 PM MDT SUN MAY 21 2006

IDC035-220300-
/O.CON.KMSO.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-060522T0300Z/
CLEARWATER ID-
725 PM PDT SUN MAY 21 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM PDT
FOR WESTERN CLEARWATER COUNTY...

* AT 715 PM PDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE 
  THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 
  IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DENT...OR ABOUT  
  21 MILES NORTH OF OROFINO...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4647 11636 4651 11638 4649 11644 4660 11644
      4661 11646 4663 11633 4680 11631 4691 11618
      4692 11571 4640 11615

$$
MEAD

000 
WWUS55 KMSO 220302
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
859 PM MDT SUN MAY 21 2006

IDC035-220309-
/O.EXP.KMSO.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-060522T0300Z/
CLEARWATER ID-
759 PM PDT SUN MAY 21 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CLEARWATER COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 800 PM PDT...

THE SEVER THUNDESTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST 
OUT OF CLEARWATER COUNTY. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING 
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

SPOTTER REPORTS FOR WESTERN CLEARWATER COUNTY WERE AS FOLLOWS:
715 PM PDT 3 S OF AHSAHKA 1 INCH HAIL AND SUSTAINED WINDS 40 MPH 
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
740 PM PDT ELK RIVER .88 INCH HAIL.

LAT...LON 4647 11636 4651 11638 4649 11644 4660 11644
      4661 11646 4663 11633 4680 11631 4691 11618
      4692 11571 4640 11615

$$
MEAD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
219 PM MDT SUN MAY 21 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON. A VEIL OF HIGHER CLOUDS DRAPED OVER IDAHO AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MONTANA HAS INHIBITED/DELAYED CONVECTION. THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH TIME AND ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL HELP INCREASE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A DEEP TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THE FULL REACH OF
THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM UNSTABLE SUB-TROPICAL AIR
INTO THE REGION. AS THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER
EAST...A UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OFFERING BETTER JET
SUPPORT FOR INCREASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS IDAHO AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AS A
RESULT...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND WINDS ALOFT
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. A WEAK JET STREAK WILL OFFER SOME LIFT
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA MAY ADD SOME
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE EQUATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...THE NEAR STATIONARY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA...IT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS THIS
EVENING. TAF SMN AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF TWB 336 HAVE BEEN NILLED
DUE TO THE WEATHER STATION AT KSMN NOT REPORTING. PLEASE SEE
APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH DUE TO RECENT
WARM TEMPERATURES CAUSING EXTENSIVE SNOW MELT. MOST RIVERS WILL
CREST TODAY OR MONDAY.

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BITTERROOT RIVER NEAR VICTOR IN RAVALLI
     COUNTY...
  ...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BITTERROOT RIVER NEAR MISSOULA IN
     MISSOULA COUNTY...
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE YAAK RIVER NEAR TROY IN LINCOLN COUNTY...
ID...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SALMON RIVER AT WHITE BIRD IN IDAHO COUNTY...
  ...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LITTLE SALMON RIVER AT RIGGINS IN
     IDAHO COUNTY...
  ...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SALMON RIVER AT SALMON IN LEMHI COUNTY...

&&

SHORT TERM...MSJ
LONG TERM/AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...STEGEMILLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
223 PM MDT SUN MAY 21 2006

IDZ005>010-MTZ001>007-043-220830-
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION-
WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-
WEST GLACIER REGION-FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION-
123 PM PDT SUN MAY 21 2006 /223 PM MDT SUN MAY 21 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...NORTHWEST MONTANA AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. PLEASE SEE THESE HYDROLOGY PRODUCTS
FOR FURTHER DETAILS:

GTFFLSMSO GTFFFAMSO GTFRVSMSO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY.

HYDROLOGY CONCERNS REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
PLEASE SEE THESE HYDROLOGY PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS:

GTFFLSMSO GTFFFAMSO GTFRVSMSO

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.