Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WGUS75 KMSO 180033
FFSMSO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
625 PM MDT SAT JUN 17 2006

MTC029-180100-
FLATHEAD MT-
625 PM MDT SAT JUN 17 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE STILLWATER RIVER BELOW THE LOWER
   STILLWATER LAKE DAM IN CENTRAL FLATHEAD COUNTY HAS BEEN
   CANCELLED...

AT 618 PM MDT...COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A 
THREAT OF A FLASH FLOOD ON STILLWATER RIVER. THEREFORE...THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF 
WATER HAS BEEN RELEASED FROM THE DAM FAILURE AND THE RIVER WILL BE 
RUNNING HIGH INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW LYING 
FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY.   

LAT...LON 4821 11434 4821 11427 4854 11455 4854 11462

$$
KOLATA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
239 PM MDT SAT JUN 17 2006

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST MONTANA WILL
MAINLY SEE CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWER DUE
TO THIS FEATURE. THEN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL
CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO. THE INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COULD SPARK ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HIGH BASE SINCE
THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO
MONDAY THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY. THIS IS WHERE THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE MONDAY WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
DARK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
ZONAL FLOW BEING ADVERTISED WITH INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED POPS...DECREASED SKY
COVER...AND WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WEATHER FEATURE IS CAUSING CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ON THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. MOUNTAIN TOPS AND PASSES WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES...SEE
APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE STREAMS AND CREEKS OF NORTHWEST MONTANA HAVE
CRESTED OR EXPECTED TO CREST BY THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE TO
RECEDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH FOR LINCOLN COUNTY HAS
BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING ALONG THE KOOTENAI
RIVER BELOW THE LIBBY DAM. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO
THE FLOOD WATCH (GTFFFAMSO) AND RIVER STATEMENT (GTFRVSMSO).

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KOOTENAI RIVER BELOW LIBBY DAM.
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FLATHEAD RIVER BELOW KERR DAM.
ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...MSJ
AVIATION...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
244 PM MDT SAT JUN 17 2006

MTZ001>004-181200-
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-WEST GLACIER REGION-
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-
244 PM MDT SAT JUN 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MONTANA AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HIGH WATER IN RESERVOIRS AS WELL AS RIVER AND STREAMS DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS HAS PROMPTED THE NEED TO
RELEASE EXCESS WATER FROM THE LIBBY DAM IN LINCOLN COUNTY AND THE
KERR DAM IN LAKE COUNTY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING ON THE
KOOTENAI AND FLATHEAD RIVERS. SEE GTFFFAMSO AND GTFRVSMSO FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR
THE KOOTENAI AND FLATHEAD RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.