Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
307 AM EDT FRI APR 21 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...YESTERDAY CONVECTION LEFT BEHIND A
COOL POOL MESO HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE WAA IS RIDING OVER
THIS BOUNDARY EARLY TODAY. LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED AS EXIT REGION OF
NE MOVING JET SEGMENT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO AS OCCURRED ON THU. PLENTY OF CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT CONVECTIVE TRIGGER NOT EVIDENT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO AREA TONIGHT. AS NOTED IN PMDHMD...GFS SOLUTION LOOKS
TO FAST AND NORTH. PREFER A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE NAM. THIS SETS UP
STRONG LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE MRX CWA. TWO PLUS INCHES OF
RAIN ON TAP MAINLY FOR WESTERN PART OF CWA. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...EXITING
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  WILL KEEP THINGS DRY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A WEAK WAVE BRUSHING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY FOR LOW
POPS OVER NORTH HALF OF CWA.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTEND.  MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE DRY...WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  59  73  54 /  80  90  50  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  74  58  69  51 /  80  90  60  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       74  58  71  51 /  80 100  60  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              73  57  69  47 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SON/MJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
530 AM EDT FRI APR 21 2006

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-211100-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
530 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006 /430 AM EDT FRI APR 21 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE.  AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.  SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  ADDITIONALLY...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

MJB