Severe Thunderstorm Warning 427, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER IOWA
(PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS) HAS MOVED EAST IN NRN IL AND SRN WI
THIS AFTERNOON. THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN EVER SO GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS. NOT
MUCH THUNDER/LIGHTNING JUST YET...ALTHO LIFTED INDICES JUST STARTING
TO GO NEGATIVE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND BEST
LIFT TO ARRIVE LATER.

AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THIS EVENING...THE FORCING/LIFT
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THUS...POPS
FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK WITH CATEGORICAL VALUES
MOST AREAS. POPS LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND SURFACE TROUGH STILL IN THE VICINTY.
PREVIOUS GRIDS ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED...AS THE TREND FOR DECREASING
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON WAS ALREADY THERE. MOS MINS AND MAXES VERY
CLOSE OVERALL AND I WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GFS MINS...THEN VERY NEAR
GFS MAXES FOR TUE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.  DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES ON FRIDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WILL STAY CLOSE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  80  61  84 /  70  50  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  75  59  82 /  80  60  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  76  59  81 /  80  60  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  72  57  78 /  90  70  30  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TG/MJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
412 AM EDT MON SEP 4 2006

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-050815-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
312 AM CDT MON SEP 4 2006 /412 AM EDT MON SEP 4 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.